What If Asteroid Apophis Hit Earth? Scientists Mapped Where It Lands

What if asteroid Apophis hit Earth on April 13, 2029? In 2021, scientists ran a planetary defense drill and mapped where it could land: the North Atlantic, Europe, Turkey, the Middle East. We simulated what would happen, second by second. This is a simulation. The real Apophis will safely pass Earth on April 13, 2029, at about 31,600 km. No impact is possible for at least 100 years. In December 2004, Apophis became the most dangerous asteroid ever recorded: a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth in 2029. That risk disappeared within days. But what if it hadn't? Using the real size, speed and orbit of Apophis, and the same equations scientists use to model asteroid impacts, we follow it from deep space to the ground: atmospheric entry, the fireball, the crater, the earthquake and the shock wave. Then three scenarios along the drill's impact corridor: the North Atlantic (tsunami), the Alps, and Istanbul. Every number in this video is calculated, and we show the math on screen: Mass: about 53.5 million tonnes (340 m wide, stony rock) Speed: 12.6 km/s at the top of the atmosphere Energy: about 924 megatons of TNT (more than 60,000 Hiroshimas) Crater: about 4.5 km wide, 600+ m deep · Earthquake: about magnitude 6.6 CHAPTERS 0:00 Istanbul, 00:45 0:51 The asteroid that scared NASA (2004) 1:57 The math: how big, how heavy 2:55 The math: 920 megatons 3:57 The impact corridor & the last day 4:59 Atmospheric entry 5:59 Impact, second by second 6:58 How far away are you? 8:04 Scenario 1: North Atlantic tsunami 9:13 Scenario 2: The Alps 10:15 Scenario 3: Istanbul 11:26 The aftermath 12:25 The truth: April 13, 2029 SOURCES Collins, Melosh & Marcus (2005), "Earth Impact Effects Program", Meteoritics & Planetary Science 40(6) - the equations behind "Impact Earth!" (Purdue University) Reddy et al. (2022), "Apophis Planetary Defense Campaign", The Planetary Science Journal 3:123 (CC BY 4.0) - the 2021 drill and its hypothetical impact corridor (redrawn on our own globe) NASA/JPL Horizons & CNEOS Sentry - orbit and close approach of 99942 Apophis (13 April 2029, 21:46 UTC) NASA/JPL: "NASA Analysis: Earth Is Safe From Asteroid Apophis for 100-Plus Years" (March 2021) Brozovic et al. (2018), "Goldstone and Arecibo radar observations of (99942) Apophis", Icarus ESA Planetary Defence: Apophis & the Ramses mission · NASA: OSIRIS-APEX · NASA: DART (2022) Ward & Asphaug (2000) and NASA Ames asteroid-generated tsunami studies (2017) - range of tsunami estimates IMAGES, DATA & SOUND Earth: NASA Blue Marble Next Generation & Black Marble (NASA Earth Observatory, public domain) Terrain & bathymetry: AWS Terrain Tiles (Mapzen; SRTM, GMTED2010, ETOPO1) · Maps: Natural Earth (public domain) Istanbul buildings & roads: © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via BBBike extracts Tsunami arrival times: our own calculation (shallow-water wave speed on real bathymetry) All animation, graphics and sound design: our own. Sound effects: our own synthesis and Freesound (CC0). Music: YouTube Audio Library. Narration uses a synthetic (AI) voice. Script, research, calculations and animation are our own. #Apophis #Asteroid #WhatIf