The Smartest Man Alive Made the Dumbest Trade

In 1720, Isaac Newton saw the South Sea Bubble coming, sold at a big profit, and walked away. Then he bought back in at twice the price. How does the mind that explained the universe buy at the worst possible moment? A cinematic documentary about the South Sea Bubble: the company built to swallow Britain's national debt, the mania in Exchange Alley, Newton's two trades, and the one man who sold at the same time and never looked back. Watch every documentary in order:    • The Greater Fool: Every Documentary   CHAPTERS 0:00 The Dumbest Trade 0:41 Part I · The World Before 2:59 Part II · The Idea 5:55 Part III · The Mania 9:19 Part IV · The Turn 12:15 Part V · The Fall 15:36 Part VI · The Greater Fool SOURCES Every figure in this video comes from the sources below. Read the originals and judge for yourself. Core research Odlyzko, A. (2019). Newton's financial misadventures in the South Sea Bubble. Notes and Records: The Royal Society Journal of the History of Science, 73(1). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsnr.2018.0018 (open preprint: https://www-users.cse.umn.edu/~odlyzk...) Odlyzko, A. (2020). Isaac Newton and the perils of the financial South Sea. Physics Today, 73(7). https://doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.4521 Odlyzko, A. (2020). An undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is: Bubbles and gullibility. Financial History, 132. https://www-users.cse.umn.edu/~odlyzk... Frehen, R., Goetzmann, W. N. & Rouwenhorst, K. G. (2013). New evidence on the first financial bubble. Journal of Financial Economics, 108(3). Working paper: https://www.nber.org/system/files/wor... Newton & the Mint, University of Oxford: https://newtonandthemint.history.ox.a... Primary sources Committee of Secrecy, House of Commons (1721). Reports relating to the late South-Sea directors. https://wellcomecollection.org/works/... Newton, I. Letters to J. F. Fauquier (19 and 23 April 1720) and to N. Fatio de Duillier (14 Sept 1724). The Correspondence of Isaac Newton, vol. 7. 1724 letter: https://www.christies.com/lotfinder/L... Stukeley, W. Memoirs of Sir Isaac Newton's Life (1752). Newton Project, University of Oxford: http://www.newtonproject.ox.ac.uk/vie... Spence, J. Anecdotes (1820, notebook of 1756), as told by Lord Radnor · Seward, W. (1797), Supplement to the Anecdotes, citing Newton's niece. Aislabie, J. Memorandum on George I's South Sea investments (1720), in History of Parliament: http://www.historyofparliamentonline.... Data and facts cited Newton's income (~£2,000 Mint + ~£1,000 investments) → Odlyzko (2019) National debt ~£50 million vs. an economy of ~£70 million a year → Odlyzko (2020, Physics Today) The share-issue arithmetic and the Flying-Post of 9 April 1720 → Odlyzko (2020, Physics Today) Newton's April sales at ~£350 and ~£20,000 profit → Odlyzko (2019) Thomas Guy's sales, ~£175,000 gain and Guy's Hospital → Odlyzko (2019) 88 new companies announced in London in June 1720 → W. R. Scott (1912), via Odlyzko (2020, Financial History) The December 1719 insurance hoax and the 21 May 1720 Daily Post advertisement for £6 million → Odlyzko (2020, Financial History) The Bubble Act, 11 June 1720 → Frehen, Goetzmann & Rouwenhorst (2013) The £26,000 bond sale (14 June), buy-back at ~£700 (inferred), July annuities and 24 August subscription → Odlyzko (2019) The Thomas Hall estate bought at £520, £405 and £395 in September 1720 → Odlyzko (2019) The Royal Society lost £600; Newton offered to cover it → Stukeley's memoirs £574,500 of "fictitious stock"; Aislabie accused over £20,000 in shares → Committee of Secrecy (1721); History of Parliament Newton's fortune before/after, the +£50,000 counterfactual and the ~×1,000 conversion (rough) → Odlyzko (2019, 2020) ARCHIVAL IMAGES Sir Isaac Newton, mezzotint by John Faber Jr. after John Vanderbank, 1726. Wellcome Collection. Public Domain Mark. https://wellcomecollection.org/works/... An Emblematical Print on the South Sea Scheme, engraving by Thomas Cook after William Hogarth (1721), published 1800. MSK Gent, 1958-V-13. Public Domain Mark. https://www.mskgent.be/en/collection/... ABOUT THIS VIDEO The dramatized scenes are AI-generated recreations, not archival footage. Archival images are authentic and credited above. Josiah is a fictional character, built from the clerks who worked at the Royal Mint; everything Newton does in this film is on the record. The newspaper pages shown are labelled recreations. The script is original and was researched from the sources above. #southseabubble #isaacnewton #documentary