The Math Behind Nick Foles’ Miracle

In 2016, Nick Foles typed a long text message to his coach, Andy Reid, planning to retire from football. Eighteen months later he was the Super Bowl MVP. Most people call that luck. But luck is only half of the story. This video walks through what Foles actually did (stay reachable when he wanted to quit), the math of why volume works (at 1-in-20 odds, 14 tries is a 51% chance of at least one win, 45 tries is 90%, 59 tries is 95%), and the part most "never give up" advice leaves out: volume only helps if every attempt teaches you something. Cy Young, Reggie Jackson, Wilt Chamberlain, and the Eagles' coaching staff all show up. The honest caveat: the research behind "luck is volume" is real but limited. Simonton's equal-odds rule, Granovetter's weak-ties study, and the 2019 Nature paper on failure all support parts of the idea; none of them prove it works for everyone. Wentz tearing his ACL was luck. Foles being in the building to take the snap was not. Sources: Foles interviews and his 2024 retirement press conference; NFL.com and ESPN game coverage for the 2017 playoffs and Super Bowl LII; Simonton (1997), Granovetter (1973), Wiseman, The Luck Factor; Yin, Wang et al., Nature 575 (2019); Baseball-Reference for Cy Young and Reggie Jackson; Wilt Chamberlain 100-point game records. 0:00 The Text 0:40 The Fall 1:13 One Message 1:43 The Run 2:24 The Math Of Volume 2:53 The Record Book 3:27 What The Research Says 4:16 Volume Needs Learning 6:06 Stay In The Game