IB Breakout Strategy: The 2 Confirmations Most Traders Never Check

Monday morning, 10:05. This breakout paid +124 ticks in 20 minutes. Two hours later, the exact same move had reversed — all of it. In this video I break down the Initial Balance (IB) breakout, simplified: one setup and two confirmations. → The IB tells you WHERE → The options market (gamma regime + charm) tells you IF → The order flow (bubbles + footprint + CVD) tells you WHEN Then I run it on a real ES session (Monday, Nov 2) — entry, stop, target, and what the footprint and the dealer positioning showed at every step. 📄 FREE IB Breakout Checklist: [LINK] 🛠️ TOOLS I USE (affiliate links) • DeepCharts (bubbles, footprint, CVD, IVB): https://my.deepcharts.com/redirect/de... • quantedOptions / quantedClassic (gamma & charm dashboards): https://www.quantedoptions.com/?ref=sky ⏱️ CHAPTERS 0:00 The breakout that paid +124 ticks… then reversed 0:21 The options market is a casino 0:53 The IB breakout: one setup, two confirmations 1:42 Beginner basics: ES, ticks, candles 2:10 Step 1: the initial balance (the fence) 3:29 VWAP + acceptance filters 4:06 What the research says (ORB studies vs buy & hold) 6:12 The fine print: slippage & costs 7:18 Confirmation 1: gamma regime 8:57 Charm: the wind 9:34 The 4 kinds of days 10:10 Confirmation 2: order flow (bubbles + footprint) 10:55 A real breakout: absorption 12:14 A fake breakout: exhaustion 13:27 Live trade: Monday Nov 2, ES 15:59 5 beginner mistakes 17:21 Position sizing (ES vs MES) 18:27 Test it yourself 19:03 Summary + free checklist 📚 RESEARCH MENTIONED • Zarattini & Aziz (2023) — "Can Day Trading Really Be Profitable?" (SSRN 4416622): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c... • Zarattini, Barbon & Aziz (2024) — opening range breakout on stocks in play • Holmberg, Lönnbark & Lundström (2013) — Finance Research Letters, opening range breakout on crude oil futures • Lundström — opening range breakout returns and volatility (crude oil & S&P 500 futures) Note: these studies test the opening range breakout (ORB), the IB's close cousin. Results are before your own costs — test it yourself. 💬 Join the community on Discord 📸 Instagram: @skydweller.trades ⚠️ Educational content only, not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past results, including the trade shown, do not guarantee future results. #daytrading #futurestrading #orderflow #initialbalance #es