Theory of Change: How Does Your Project Create Value? | Course 02 • Module 04

Theory of Change: How Does Your Project Create Value? | Course 02 • Module 04 What must happen between spending money and creating value? Learn how to connect strategic choices to evidence, accountability and delivery. In this lesson: Link inputs, activities, outputs, near-term outcomes and long-term impacts. Identify mechanisms, external factors and assumptions. State a counterfactual and explain contribution versus attribution. Turn fragile assumptions into tests. Worked case and explanation: Bus priority can improve journey times only if signal settings, enforcement, operating frequency and user uptake work together. Connect each activity to its expected output and service effect. Then identify assumptions that could break the chain and design tests for them. An improvement after opening is consistent with the theory, but a credible comparison is needed before attributing the change solely to the project. Apply the lesson: Draw a logic model and register three assumptions that could break it. Pause the video, write your reasoning, and identify the evidence you would need before acting. Check your understanding: Does observing an improvement after opening prove project causation? No. Learning chapters: 00:00 Introduction and learning goals 01:13 Section 1, the Value Creation Gap, and how we actually bridge that divide 02:01 Section 2, let's look at linking inputs to impacts through the logic model 02:55 Section 3, testing fragile assumptions and putting our logic to the test 04:06 Section 4, contribution versus attribution, and how we go about proving causatio 05:43 section five, artifact and knowledge check Study Course 02 in module order:    • Course INEX 02 | From Vision to Execution:...   Previous module (03):    • Stakeholder Strategy: Who Benefits and Who...   Next module (05):    • Better Project KPIs: Measure Outcomes, Not...   Read the primary references: UK government guidance https://www.gov.uk/government/publica... UK government guidance https://www.gov.uk/government/publica... Subscribe to INEX Global Institute to keep learning strategic project management, HSE, resilience, net-positive infrastructure, risk management, and responsible AI and robotics:    / @inex-global-institute   Join the discussion: Which assumption in your own project needs testing next? Share your reasoning, and save the course playlist for your next study session. Learning context: Examples and calculations are illustrative unless attributed to a primary source. UK guidance has a defined jurisdiction. Crossrail figures refer to historical funding, not final costs or current performance. INEX teaching templates are adaptations; no university endorsement or accreditation is implied. #StrategicPlanning #ProjectManagement #Infrastructure #INEXGlobalInstitute #TheoryOfChange #LogicModel #ImpactEvaluation #Megaprojects #ProjectStrategy #ProjectDelivery