Episode #369: What History Says About Fed Rate Hikes

Matt covers a big week for the Fed, breaking down the first interest rate hike in three years and what it could mean for markets. He also looks at a fresh reading on M2 money supply growth, a rare and historically negative correlation between stocks and bond yields, and a historical dataset that runs against the common narrative, showing stocks have actually performed better after Fed rate hikes than after Fed rate cuts. The episode closes with a look at household net worth growth by income tier since 2019. Timestamps recalibrated using a confirmed cue (6:31) and the actual commercial break placement (8:13 to 9:17). Pre-break offset +61s, post-break offset +125s. 01:55 Market recap: index performance and Treasury yields 03:19 Big headlines: the Fed's first rate hike in three years 05:45 M2 money supply update 08:13 Commercial break 09:17 Stock and bond correlation hits a historic extreme 12:22 What history says about stocks after Fed rate hikes 16:13 Household net worth growth since 2019 19:28 Closing thoughts: earnings season ahead Mark McEvily - Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner Matthew Jessup - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Compliance Officer, and Managing Partner Address: 35 Park Ave. Dayton, OH 45419 Phone: 937-938-9105 https://www.jessupwealthmanagement.com/ Facebook: @JessupWealthManagement LinkedIn: @JessupWealthManagement Twitter: @jessupwealth Instagram: @jessupwealth Advisory services are offered through Jessup Wealth Management, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. https://www.jessupwealthmanagement.co... If you've been enjoying The Independent Advisors Podcast for a while now and want to take the next step in your financial journey, I'd encourage you to head to our website, jessupwealthmanagement.com. Matt offers a 15-minute initial call where you can discuss your financial goals and see if JWM is a good fit for your needs. Scheduling is easy, once you land at jessupwealthmanagement.com just click "Schedule Initial Call" and select a time that works best for you! There's a quick survey to fill out that will help guide the conversation and ensure your time is used efficiently. If you're ready to learn more, visit jessupwealthmanagement.com and book your call today! Take advantage of our partnership with LifeLock and get discounts using our link: https://lifelock.norton.com/offers?ex... Sources: Charlie Bilello on X (9/22/26) — M2 money supply chart, direct link not provided in show notes Barchart data, via Matt's commentary (9/22/26) — stock/bond correlation, direct link not provided in show notes Charlie Bilello on X (9/22/26) — S&P 500 returns after Fed hikes vs. cuts, direct link not provided in show notes Ben Carlson on X (9/21/26), data via Ritholtz Wealth Management — household net worth growth, direct link not provided in show notes