Mearsheimer: Has the War Turned Against Iran?

The conventional wisdom holds that the US war on Iran has been a massive strategic blunder. As John Mearsheimer has repeatedly argued, Washington went to war with four principal objectives: regime change, ending Iran’s uranium-enrichment program, destroying its ballistic-missile capabilities, and dismantling its network of militia proxies. None has been achieved. Add to this the damage inflicted on America’s alliance structure and the risks to US military bases across the region, and it is easy to see why Mearsheimer’s assessment -- that President Trump has presided over a foreign-policy debacle -- has gained such a wide following. But what if it is the Islamic Republic of Iran that is now in serious trouble? The US naval blockade is inflicting economic pain on Iran, while Tehran’s attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz has so far failed to produce the global energy crisis that many predicted. The world economy has proved surprisingly resilient, while Iran’s ability to export its oil is being severely constrained. What if, as the American scholar and columnist Walter Russell Mead has suggested, President Trump can keep as much energy as possible flowing through and around the Strait while simultaneously tightening the economic screws on Tehran? Could Iran’s rulers have overplayed their hand? John Mearsheimer is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and the author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2001).