AI Trade Collapse Continues, PPI Inflation Data Even Worse Than CPI, Here Are The Levels And Trades!
Verified Investing
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AI Trade Collapse Continues, PPI Inflation Data Even Worse Than CPI, Here Are The Levels And Trades!
45 307 просмотров · Трансляция закончилась 4 часа назад
Verified Investing
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45 307 просмотров · Трансляция закончилась 4 часа назад
PPI came in even hotter than CPI, and the AI trade is collapsing as credit markets price in defaults.
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Producer prices rose 6.3% year over year, a full point above forecast. Core came in at 5% against 4.4% expected. Yields are still dropping, because fear over AI debt is outweighing inflation. Gareth Soloway breaks down CoreWeave's credit default swaps, the KOSPI going limit down, and the levels and trades across stocks, metals, oil and Bitcoin.
📐 ON TODAY'S SHOW
🔴 THE PPI SHOCK. Headline 6.3% vs about 5.3% forecast. Month over month 1.3%, more than double forecast. Core 5% year over year. Strip out food and energy and producer inflation is still running hot.
🔴 CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS. The cost to insure CoreWeave's debt is about 10% a year now, and it jumps to about 15% out to 2032. That's the market pricing in a real risk of default. Gareth is still bullish on the S&P, but more bearish on the Nasdaq, where AI is concentrated.
🔵 THE NASDAQ AND THE KOSPI. Nasdaq futures are down 1.2%, while the more diversified S&P is down only about 0.3%. Korea's KOSPI went limit down, falling 7.57% and more than 20% in seven days, and it's nearing trend line support for a bounce.
🔴 MICRON. Gareth says the AI trade topped on Micron's summer earnings. It broke its bear flag and is trading near $872, with bounce levels at $830 and $730 to $740. His longer-term target is $460 by 2027.
🟢 THE 10-YEAR. Yields are already near 5%, faster than Gareth expected, after last week's topping tails. But they're falling for the wrong reason: fear of a default-driven recession. His year-end target is 4.7%.
🔴 SILVER, COPPER AND OIL. Silver confirmed its breakdown, fell 6% to near $55, and Gareth is targeting $48 to $50 to accumulate. He's extremely bearish on copper, and a confirmed break targets $6.30. He'd short oil near the $100 gap fill. In a recession, oil could fall toward $55.
🔵 GOLD, NAT GAS AND BITCOIN. Gold dipped below its line but didn't confirm, so it may be the safe haven that holds. Nat gas reclaimed its trend line, and Gareth is still long half. Bitcoin is below $81,000 at $80,390. If it doesn't recapture that level, the trap door opens to $75,500, and his big buy level is $67,000.
🔵 THE TRADES. Taiwan Semiconductor posted fantastic earnings and is still down 3.7%. CoreWeave's bounce level is $59.50. Nebius has a gap fill at $148. Walmart is a potential short near $120.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Lower yields aren't always bullish. When rates fall on recession fear instead of cooling inflation, earnings are at risk, and that's bad for stocks.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 AI Collapse and Hot PPI
01:30 The PPI Numbers
03:30 CoreWeave's Credit Default Swaps
06:15 S&P Futures
07:45 Yields Fall for the Wrong Reason
09:15 Nasdaq and the KOSPI Limit Down
10:45 Micron's Bear Flag
14:00 Silver Confirms Its Breakdown
16:00 The Copper Short
17:30 Where Gareth Shorts Oil
18:30 Gold Holds
19:15 Nat Gas
20:15 Bitcoin's Trap Door
21:30 TSM, CoreWeave, Nebius and Walmart
23:45 Sponsor: Rumble Wallet
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