ARPA-H Workshop: Simulation and Causal Models for AI Evaluation and Regulation (7/16/26)

ARPA-H convened a small group of researchers, clinicians, and technologists to explore the current state of the science regarding simulation, causal inference and foundation models and their potential ability to rigorously evaluate clinical artificial intelligence (AI) for regulatory use. AI is entering healthcare faster than our ability to evaluate it. A new generation of clinical AI — conversational, agentic, multimodal, and continuously learning — is emerging without a clear evaluation framework. The goal of this workshop is to identify the hardest problems and explore opportunities for solutions that existing academic, industry, and government incentives are unlikely to produce on their own. 0:00 World Simulation: The Next Epoch in AI in Healthcare | Haider Warraich 11:50 Building and Evaluating AI Systems at Stanford | Nigam Shah 26:10 A World Model for the Virtual Cell and AI-Driven Digital Biology | Eric Xing 43:02 FDA Regulation of Modeling, Simulation, and Clinical Decision Support | Alex Cadotte 58:23 The Next Frontier in Regulatory Science Is In Silico | Aldo Badano 1:13:42 All of Us as National Infrastructure for Rigorous Clinical AI Evaluation | Chandan Sastry 1:29:15 From Textbook Causality to Regulatory Evidence: Building the Evaluation Substrate for Clinical AI | Emily Xue 1:47:07 How Do You License the AI Doctor? | Jonathan Chen 2:00:50 From Foundation Models to Causal Digital Twins | Jonathan Amar 2:12:41 Clinical Environment Simulator for Evaluating Clinical Agents | Pranav Rajpurkar and Luyang Luo 2:30:00 The Elephant in the Clinic: Addressing Data Gaps for Causal Models | Sam Roosz 2:46:20 Foundation Models for Causal Biomedical Discovery and Clinical AI Evaluation | Akshay Chaudhari and Roxana Daneshjou 3:01:47 Genesis Mission and Computational Health at Oak Ridge National Laboratory | Heidi Hanson 3:17:48 Longitudinal Multimodal Real-World Data for Causal Inference and Regulatory-Grade Evidence | Nick Gossen 3:29:25 Behavioral Simulation and Predicting Human Behavior with Modern AI | Michael Bernstein 3:48:22 Closing Remarks and Workshop Synthesis | Haider Warraich Program Manager: Haider Warraich, M.D. https://arpa-h.gov/about/people/haide...