Lucky or Legit? Our Week 5 Buy/Sell Calls vs the Data

Brock Purdy has 12 touchdowns when the data expected 6.3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 6 against 3.1 expected (through Week 4). Lucky, or legit? Our Week 5 buy, sell or hold calls on the biggest touchdown-luck stories, then the data gets the last word. Ethan and Garrett go through six NFL offenses scoring way above or below what they "should" (actual points vs expected points), then eight players whose fantasy production is running ahead of or behind their role and career efficiency. We each make our call first. Then the data gets its say. Every "Data says" verdict is a data suggestion built from usage, expected touchdowns and career efficiency. Our takes are our own. We recorded before Week 4: the card numbers are through Week 3, and every Week 4 result pops up on screen as we go. Chapters 0:00 Intro 0:22 Offenses: real or running hot? 0:38 Titans 2:07 Panthers 3:35 Buccaneers 5:35 Raiders 7:43 Giants 10:53 Vikings 12:09 Skill or luck? 12:22 Jaxon Smith-Njigba 14:19 Brock Purdy 15:48 CeeDee Lamb 17:26 Drake Maye 19:55 Josh Allen 21:32 Tyler Shough 23:18 Saquon Barkley 24:30 George Pickens 26:06 Wrap-up + Week 4 check By the numbers (through Week 3) Titans: 12.3 points per game vs 19.1 expected Panthers: 29.7 points per game vs 23.3 expected Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 37.7 fantasy points per game, 6 TDs vs 2.8 expected Brock Purdy: 27.3 points per game, 10 TDs vs 4.4 expected Drake Maye: 9.5 points per game, 44% of what his draft slot usually scores George Pickens: 0 TDs vs 1.3 expected Week 4 results (on screen) Giants: 36 points in a 36-24 win over Arizona Vikings: 15 points (five field goals) in a 15-10 win over Miami CeeDee Lamb: 17 catches, 189 yards, the game-winning TD at Houston Drake Maye: 269 yards, 3 TDs, and a 29-26 win at Buffalo Saquon Barkley: left early with a hamstring injury Panthers: led Detroit 29-19 late in the 3rd quarter Sunday night (still in progress when we posted) Which call would you make? Tell us in the comments. The full session is on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. #FantasyFootball #NFL #FantasyFootballAdvice