Is This The Collapse We Have Been Warned About For Decades?

A study published this week in Nature Climate Change by researchers at Utrecht University reports that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation survived five degrees Celsius of warming in one model run and collapsed at two degrees in another — with the only difference between the runs being how fast the carbon dioxide was added. The authors identify a critical warming rate of roughly three-tenths of a degree Celsius per decade, which their own institution describes as a pace the world is already approaching. It lands four months after a University of Miami team published observational evidence of a consistent decline across four ocean arrays spanning twenty-six degrees of latitude. For twenty years the entire argument about this circulation has been conducted in degrees — how hot before it breaks. This paper says the number that decides the outcome was never a temperature at all. Which leaves one question hanging over a field that has been arguing in public, in journals, for decades: if the threshold is a speed rather than a level, what does the twenty-two-year measurement record actually tell us — and what can it not tell us yet? Subscribe for daily coverage of space weather, solar activity, earthquakes, volcanoes and the science stories that matter. Comment below with what you want covered next. Share this with someone who needs the facts without the hype. CHAPTERS 0:00 Introduction 0:38 What The New Study Found 2:22 How The Atlantic Circulation Works 4:40 Two Model Runs Compared 6:44 Why Warming Speed Matters Most 9:04 The Critical Rate We Are Approaching 11:29 Why The Record Is Too Short 13:21 Four Arrays Show One Decline 15:19 The Case That It Holds 17:18 How Divided The Experts Are 19:45 European Winters After A Collapse 21:58 Sea Level, Monsoons And Farming 24:21 What Happens Next SOURCES Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid climate change (Nature Climate Change) — Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid climate change Rapid warming may tip Atlantic circulation at 2C, while slower warming may avert collapse (Phys.org) — Rapid warming may tip Atlantic circulation at 2°C, while slower warming may avert collapse The Atlantic Ocean can handle more warming than expected, with one big catch (ScienceDaily) — The Atlantic Ocean can handle more warming than expected — with one big catch Meridionally consistent decline in the observed western boundary contribution to the AMOC (Science Advances) — Meridionally consistent decline in the observed western boundary contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation A critical Atlantic Ocean current shows two-decade slowdown, study finds (University of Miami Rosenstiel School) — A critical Atlantic Ocean current shows two-decade slowdown, study finds Signal and Noise in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26N (Geophysical Research Letters) — Signal and Noise in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N Climate change: AMOC likely to withstand future warming (University of Exeter) — Climate change: AMOC likely to withstand future warming Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes (Nature) — Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the AMOC (Nature Communications) — https://www.nature.com/articles/s4146... Expert judgements on the response of the AMOC to climate change (Climatic Change) — Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change European Temperature Extremes Under Different AMOC Scenarios (Geophysical Research Letters) — European Temperature Extremes Under Different AMOC Scenarios in the Community Earth System Model Ocean current collapse could trigger profound cooling in northern Europe (Carbon Brief) — Ocean current ‘collapse’ could trigger ‘profound cooling’ in northern Europe – even with global warming - Carbon Brief Dynamic and steric sea-level changes due to a collapsing AMOC (Ocean Science) — Dynamic and steric sea-level changes due to a collapsing AMOC in the Community Earth System Model Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi-Model Comparison (Earth's Future) — Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi‐Model Comparison A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping (Nordic Council of Ministers) — A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping This video is for educational and informational purposes. All figures, quotes and findings are drawn from published research and official agency releases, linked above. Where scientists disagree, that disagreement is presented rather than resolved, and any speculation is labelled as speculation. #AMOC #ClimateTippingPoint