Interview on ‪@AsharqBusiness‬ on August 10th, 2026

Three converging constraints on US policy, one asymmetric trade. First, energy. The Strait of Hormuz closure has re-priced geopolitical risk into crude, but the barrel understates the problem. With Brent around 85 dollars, refined products such as diesel and gasoline are trading at levels consistent with 100 dollar crude, and several countries are experiencing outright shortages of oil derivatives. The inflationary impulse is therefore larger than the headline oil price suggests, and it argues for tighter policy. Second, Japan. Yen weakness and imported inflation are pushing the BoJ toward higher rates, and any meaningful currency defense would likely involve selling US Treasuries to buy yen. Higher Japanese yields plus Treasury sales would tighten US financial conditions from the outside, precisely when Washington wants them loose. Third, the domestic economy. Growth is K-shaped, concentrated in AI-related investment and government-supported employment, while the July payrolls report showed an outright loss of 23,000 jobs. Hiking into that labor market is politically and economically painful; not hiking lets the inflation from the first two hammers run. The market implication is straightforward. If the US monetary authorities choose to cap rates despite these pressures, real yields cannot rise enough to support the currency. In that scenario the dollar has found its top and gold has found its bottom, which is exactly what the gold market has been pricing.