We Made 10 ESOP Predictions in January — Here's What Actually Happened | ESOP Radio

Six months into 2026, Trevor Gilmore and Ben Spadt sit down together in Newport Beach to revisit the ten ESOP market predictions they made back in January and check them against what's actually happened so far this year. This episode matters for any business owner, CPA, banker, or advisor trying to understand where ESOP lending, legislation, and deal activity are actually headed in 2026. The conversation opens with a look at bank lending for ESOP formations, which has become more competitive as major national and regional banks continue to compete for ESOP-related deals. From there, the hosts turn to private equity, discussing why PE-owned companies — particularly in software — are increasingly considering ESOP sales, and walking through a specific example of a Washington, D.C.-area boat manufacturer with the Navy as a major client that was sold by its private equity owner to an ESOP. The back half of the episode covers workforce and culture trends, including a Central Valley Business Times study on job seekers actively targeting ESOP-owned employers, the first cannabis company ESOP transaction of 2026, and how business owners are increasingly building an ownership-minded culture before an ESOP is even implemented. The hosts also discuss how AI is showing up in ESOP conversations — largely as a real-time fact-checking tool for prospects rather than a replacement for advisor relationships. Topics covered in this episode: -Competitive bank lending for ESOP formations in 2026 -Private-equity-owned companies exploring ESOP exits -A boat manufacturer's transition from PE ownership to an ESOP -Gen X business owners using partial ESOPs for liquidity -AI as a validation tool versus an execution tool in ESOP deals -Employees actively seeking out ESOP-owned employers -The first cannabis company ESOP of 2026 -Pro-ESOP legislation moving through Congress -Why ESOP deals tend to have a higher likelihood of closing than private equity deals -Architecture, construction, and engineering companies leading ESOP adoption -Building ownership culture before implementing an ESOP -Ben's five predictions for the rest of 2026 Viewers will come away with a grounded, midyear read on where ESOP lending, legislation, private equity dynamics, and workforce demand are actually headed. Connect with Menke & Associates: 🌐 https://www.menke.com #ESOP #EmployeeOwnership #SuccessionPlanning #ESOPFinancing #PrivateEquity #ESOPLegislation #BusinessSuccession #ExitPlanning #MiddleMarket #ESOPRadio Chapters 00:00 Welcome and recap of the LA trip 01:44 Recap of the ESOP 101 bank event in Irvine 02:01 Introducing the midyear check-in on 2026 predictions 02:25 Prediction 1: Banks compete harder to lend on ESOP formations 03:15 Prediction 2: Private-equity-owned companies turn to ESOPs 05:01 Prediction 3: Gen X owners use partial ESOPs for liquidity 05:39 Prediction 4: AI raises awareness of ESOPs as a liquidity tool 07:02 Prediction 5: Employees actively seek out ESOP-owned employers 08:38 Prediction 6: The first cannabis ESOP of 2026 closes 09:44 Prediction 7: Demographics and legislation create a "perfect storm" 11:01 Prediction 8: ESOPs gain a deal-certainty edge over private equity 11:50 Prediction 9: Architecture, construction, and engineering keep leading 12:52 Prediction 10: Ownership culture before ESOP implementation 15:23 ESOPs shift from last resort to strategic tool 17:15 Why ESOPs are "the endurance option" 17:42 Ben's five predictions for the rest of 2026 19:36 Closing and where to find ESOP Radio