I Simulated 1939 Europe vs Modern Africa

What if 1939 Europe (Germany, the Soviet Union, Britain, France and everyone else) fought every army in Africa today? I built a simulation with real equipment numbers and ran the war 1,000 times. Africa wins almost every fight in the air: about 50 European planes shot down for every African jet. And it still runs out first. With no outside help, its guided missiles last about 16 days. After that, the war is decided by something far less exciting than technology: how many soldiers each side can get across the Mediterranean. 🔢 Key numbers (medians of 1,000 runs) • Day 16: Africa's guided missiles are gone (range day 9 to 32) • ~17,000: European planes lost before Europe controls the sky (around day 63) • Day ~200: Europe's factories have rebuilt its air force to full size • 35%: runs in which Europe takes and holds an African capital — from 2% if it can ship under 10,000 soldiers a day, to 74% at 20,000–25,000 a day • 8% / 1%: runs in which Africa reaches Madrid / still holds it after two years ⏱ Chapters 0:00 One war, a thousand times 0:34 The rules 1:01 The two sides 1:51 What nobody publishes 2:08 The air war 3:23 Crossing the sea 3:54 The land war 4:46 What decides it 5:37 Africa invades Europe 6:39 What would change it 7:03 What the model leaves out 7:40 Outro 🧮 How the simulation works One day per step, two years per run. Every number I couldn't pin down (missile stockpiles, how many jets are ready, how fast Europe can ship troops, how much better a modern soldier is) is drawn from a realistic range in each of the 1,000 runs. Africa gets no outside help: no new missiles, no spare parts. Europe's factories run at 1940 wartime rates (about 110 planes a day). Neither side can march around the Mediterranean; every army has to cross the sea. Europe may use its 1939 poison-gas stockpiles (banned today under the Chemical Weapons Convention). To win, a side must hold an enemy capital after two years. ⚠️ What the model leaves out It treats more than fifty militaries as one perfectly run army, ignores politics, morale and pilot skill, and assumes Africa's guided weapons work without foreign satellites. The land war rests on dials nobody can measure, so treat the casualty figures (millions on both sides) as rough orders of magnitude. 📚 Sources • IISS, The Military Balance (personnel and equipment, via Atlasocio and Army Recognition) • FlightGlobal, World Air Forces 2026 (Egyptian Air Force, via AeroCorner) • J. Ellis, The World War II Databook (1940 aircraft production) • Encyclopaedia Britannica, Forces and resources of the European combatants, 1939 • US DoD, Conduct of the Persian Gulf War: Final Report to Congress (1992); AFHRA, What Happened to the Iraqi Air Force? • Iran's F-14 readiness: CIA estimates as reported by The Space Review • Operation Torch troop numbers: French Directorate of Memory, Heritage and Archives; US Naval History and Heritage Command • Imperial War Museums: the Royal Navy and the Mediterranean supply war • Map data: Natural Earth. Equipment drawings are simplified outlines drawn to published dimensions. Voiced by a real person. Researched with real data. #simulation #history #whatif