The AI Rent Boom — Why Bay Area Multifamily Is the Hottest Market in the Country

EPISODE SUMMARY The Bay Area multifamily market keeps getting "wilder and wilder." In this episode, host Vladimir Bosanac (co-founder and publisher of The Registry) sits down with Dave Saxe, Managing Principal at Calvera Partners, to unpack why San Francisco has become arguably the strongest multifamily market in the country — with 25–30% lease trade-outs, vacancy at a 20-year low, and the AI boom pulling equity back to a region investors were fleeing just a few years ago. From there the conversation widens out: which markets are next in line (Seattle, Austin, and a sleeper pick in Orange County), what's really happening with interest rates and inflation heading into 2027, and where distress and deal flow might finally open up. The pair close with two "Microscope / Telescope" segments — the newly passed 21st Century Road to Housing Act and California's decision to sue five cities over housing — plus the eye-opening economic numbers rolling in from World Cup host cities. Chapters / timestamps (00:00) Welcome and episode roadmap (02:10) SF multifamily: 25–30% lease trade-outs, 8–10%+ market rent growth, 20-year-low vacancy (04:21) Rent-to-income ratio and how much runway is left (Green Street's ~8% 3-year CAGR) (06:45) The ripple effect — Oakland, the Peninsula, Silicon Valley, and market cyclicality (08:50) Investor appetite: capital flips back to the Bay Area, but deals are slim pickings (10:44) Supply crunch — inclusionary housing cuts, impact fees, union costs, ~5.25% return on cost (13:08) Lending: open for existing product, tighter for new construction (15:09) Other markets — Austin: supply glut, has it found a bottom? (16:24) Seattle / Puget Sound: AI hiring, life science, cheaper housing, politics (20:45) Orange County: the defense-AI sleeper pick (23:03) Interest rates & inflation — core CPI ~3.2%, 6.5%+ mortgages, the "new normal" (26:08) The refinance wall and where distress could open up deal flow (27:48) REITs, cost of capital, and the Essex/EQR "we love the Bay Area" story (31:52) Microscope/Telescope: the 21st Century Road to Housing Act (passed 85–5) (33:56) California sues five cities over housing — Half Moon Bay, Huntington Beach (37:03) World Cup economics — San Jose watch parties, NY/NJ's $2.1B impact, Seattle merchants