Emmanuel Todd: Is the Russia–Ukraine War Really a U.S.–Russia War in Disguise? Episode 2.

Was NATO's post-Cold War enlargement inevitable—or was it a political choice with profound consequences? In this video, I examine one of the central geopolitical debates of our time through the lens of French historian and anthropologist Emmanuel Todd and a broad range of historical and political scholarship. I begin by presenting three of Todd's central claims: • that the war is fundamentally a conflict between the United States and Russia rather than simply Russia and Ukraine; • that the United States is gradually disengaging from the conflict; • and that Europe is pursuing a policy that ultimately runs against its own interests. Before assessing these controversial propositions, we step back and ask a more fundamental question: how did Europe arrive at this point? The video explores the strategic landscape that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union—a world in which NATO's original adversary had disappeared, yet the Alliance expanded farther east than ever before. I examine the principal scholarly explanations for NATO enlargement, competing interpretations of its impact on relations with Russia, and the ongoing debate over whether enlargement contributed to the origins of the Russia–Ukraine war. The discussion then turns to Eastern Europe and Ukraine. How did the countries of the region view NATO membership? How divided was Ukrainian society? And how should we understand Ukraine's long-standing historical and civilizational duality? Only after examining these historical and political questions do we return to Emmanuel Todd's three propositions to ask: how well do they stand up in light of the evidence? Whether you agree with Todd or not, understanding his argument requires understanding the history that precedes it.