A Record El Niño Is Coming This Winter — And It Still Won't Refill The Colorado River

NOAA now puts a 75% chance on this becoming the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950. Most coverage will tell you the West is about to be rescued. Reclamation's own numbers say otherwise. The problem isn't whether El Niño shows up. It's where it lands. El Niño reliably wets the Lower Basin, including Arizona, New Mexico, and southern Nevada. But nearly all of Lake Powell's water comes from snow in the Upper Basin: Colorado, Wyoming, Utah. That's the half of the map where the El Niño signal is weakest. We've already seen this happen. In 2015-16, a super El Niño arrived, Upper Basin snowpack finished around normal, and the river still delivered only 13.4 million acre-feet. In this video: which states actually benefit this winter, why the snow that matters falls where the signal is weakest, what Reclamation has already decided for 2027 regardless of weather, and how a lake elevation you've never thought about shows up on your power bill. I also correct a number I got wrong in my last video. SOURCES: • NOAA Climate Prediction Center — ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, September 10, 2026 • Bureau of Reclamation — August 2026 24-Month Study • U.S. Department of the Interior — 2027-2028 Operating Guidelines and Record of Decision, August 21, 2026 • Milly & Dunne (2020), Science — Colorado River flow and snow albedo • Clark, Serreze & McCabe (2001), Water Resources Research — ENSO and montane snowpack • University of Colorado Western Water Assessment Every number in this video is named and dated so you can check it yourself. #ElNino #ColoradoRiver #LakePowell #Drought #NOAA