What Are the Barriers to Tax Stability? | Tax Foundation Panel

Former Hill staffers and policy experts will discuss the hurdles for tax certainty, including budget reconciliation rules, the budget window, tax extenders, and more. Moderator: Daniel Bunn, Tax Foundation Speakers: Marc Goldwein, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; Matthew Dickerson, Baseline Policy, Beth Bell, PwC 0:00 - Daniel Bunn (Tax Foundation) - Welcome & Introduction 0:44 - Overview of today's event: tax certainty & process barriers 1:18 - Sailing/chop analogy for tax code uncertainty 2:49 - Intro to Panel 1: Marc Goldwein, Matt Dickerson, Beth Bell 4:29 - Matt Dickerson - CBO baseline bias: current law vs. current policy 7:00 - Matt Dickerson - Senate's "novel baseline" in the Big Beautiful Bill 8:37 - Daniel Bunn - Budget rules, constraints & political incentives 9:31 - Marc Goldwein - "The politics is the problem" (not the process) 10:25 - Marc Goldwein - Better Way Plan & the TCJA sausage-making process 11:31 - Marc Goldwein - How TCJA became a "Frankenstein" bill 12:22 - Daniel Bunn - What TCJA chose to make permanent (corporate rate) 12:25 - Marc Goldwein - The right tradeoff given constraints 12:45 - Beth Bell - Process vs. politics as opposing forces 13:27 - Beth Bell - Bipartisan collaboration & shifts over time 14:29 - Beth Bell - Navigating revenue vs. policy goals in reconciliation 15:33 - Beth Bell - "Rothification" war story (TCJA 2017) 17:15 - Beth Bell - Child Tax Credit & Build Back Better budget tension 18:52 - Beth Bell - "Entrenchment" as a path to long-term policy stability 19:53 - Daniel Bunn - Drilling down on certainty vs. budget discipline 20:34 - Matthew Dickerson - Budget enforcement rules & what they measure 22:22 - Marc Goldwein - Baseline bias comes from policy, not process 23:45 - Beth Bell - Norms vs. rules in congressional institutions 26:10 - Beth Bell - Build Back Better: $1B revenue instruction strategy 27:34 - Marc Goldwein - IRA as a process success (narrowing from $6T) 30:21 - Daniel Bunn - Political incentive running counter to certainty 31:44 - Matthew Dickerson - Politicians always want to "do stuff" 33:08 - Matthew Dickerson - Why most Ways & Means members didn't buy in to TCJA 34:11 - Daniel Bunn - Can part of the tax code be a "sandbox"? 35:08 - Marc Goldwein - 4 reasons policies are made temporary (+ new 4th reason) 37:21 - Daniel Bunn - What happens when a champion member retires 38:02 - Beth Bell - Correcting the IRA "process success" narrative (House vs. Senate) 38:25 - Beth Bell - New Markets Tax Credit & neighborhood homes tax credit 39:26 - Beth Bell - TCJA international regime: long road of coalition building 41:24 - Daniel Bunn - Patient policy homework still matters 41:44 - Daniel Bunn - Lessons from the Big Beautiful Bill (current policy baseline) 42:31 - Matthew Dickerson - Political will still the main constraint going forward 43:40 - Marc Goldwein - Pandora's box: chairman can now "make up the score" 45:26 - Beth Bell - Unified government & process flexibility 47:17 - Beth Bell - Social Security trust funds as the next big test 48:06 - Matthew Dickerson - Social Security trust fund exhaustion & CBO scoring distortion 50:19 - Daniel Bunn - Are budget enforcement mechanisms becoming too malleable? 52:06 - Marc Goldwein - Every budget rule has been eliminated; only trust funds remain 54:12 - Marc Goldwein - Two possible paths: trust funds + fiscal crisis "one-two punch" 55:11 - Beth Bell - Interest rate payments as the real internal worry 57:25 - Matthew Dickerson - "Exorbitant privilege" evaporating; higher interest costs 59:56 - Matthew Dickerson - Need a "Liz Truss moment" to force action; have plans ready 1:00:07 - Marc Goldwein - Tariff revenue entirely absorbed by higher interest rates 1:00:25 - Daniel Bunn - Q&A begins 1:00:53 - Audience Q (Steve Anton) - Trust fund accounting & will Congress act early? 1:03:10 - Marc Goldwein - Trust funds as a fiscal rule; emotional attachment to Social Security 1:04:11 - Beth Bell - Staff understanding vs. member understanding; faith in mission-driven staff 1:06:38 - Daniel Bunn - Staff as key drivers of policy depth 1:07:13 - Audience Q - What's the impetus for broad meaningful tax reform? 1:10:38 - Marc Goldwein - Tax code must "hit rock bottom" again before reform (1986, 2017 pattern) 1:11:13 - Daniel Bunn - "No tax on X" metastasizing 1:12:22 - Daniel Bunn - Closing remarks: still in uncertain fiscal territory despite TCJA permanence #TaxPolicy #TaxCertainty #TaxReform #FiscalPolicy #FederalBudget