AI Stocks Collapse On Human Extinction Worry, Oil Surges As Investors Panic Into Fed
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AI Stocks Collapse On Human Extinction Worry, Oil Surges As Investors Panic Into Fed
105 407 просмотров · Трансляция закончилась 21 час назад
Verified Investing
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105 407 просмотров · Трансляция закончилась 21 час назад
AI stocks collapse on existential-risk warnings while oil surges into the Fed.
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The weekend's AI news knocked the Middle East off the front page. Anthropic's Dario Amodei said we must slow the pace of AI capability gains, and Musk and Altman echoed the existential-risk framing. The AI buildout trade sold off — but the software names it was supposed to kill are rallying. Gareth Soloway has the rotation and the levels.
📐 TODAY'S GAME PLAN
🔴 THE AI SELLOFF — If the labs slow down, does data center demand slow with it? That question is why Oracle, Nvidia and Lumentum are all lower. Gareth pushes back on the doom take, though: demand today is enormous even without further advances, so he expects pullbacks and resumptions rather than the trade evaporating.
🟢 THE ROTATION NOBODY EXPECTED — The actionable half. Software names hammered for six to twelve months on the "AI will replace them" narrative — ServiceNow, Adobe — are catching bids. If AI slows, those companies have more life left. One narrative, two opposite trades.
🔴 OIL — Crude is at $104.40 after making a short-term high, running straight into a resistance trend line with an unusual number of pivots on it: three highs from late 2025 into early 2026, the gap up when war broke out with Iran, the run to $120, and three separate tags on the way back down. Gareth discloses he is short oil at this level.
🔴 THE 10-YEAR — Pushing 4.987%, right into the double top. Below 5% he thinks markets are broadly fine, and a pierce is survivable. What matters is a daily close above the 2023 tie at 5.02% — that is open sky, and where he starts thinking about a run on the bond market and renewed yield curve control.
🔵 THE FED — Roughly 87% odds of a 25 basis point hike Wednesday, which means it is priced in and the decision itself does little. The 2:30 press conference is the trade. Warsh signaling more hikes means panic; Warsh stepping back for a few meetings means a rally.
🟢 S&P 500 — Down about 0.76% but still above 7,570 to 7,575, so his bias stays bullish. Break it and he goes neutral down to 7,400. Below 7,400 is where he gets genuinely concerned.
🔴 GOLD AND SILVER — The head and shoulders he warned about last week is now triggering. Gareth walks the measured move properly — plumb line from the head to the neckline, applied from the break — giving roughly $3,950 on gold. Silver closing below today points to about $55.50. Both patterns die if price recaptures the trend line.
🟢 BITCOIN AND THE DAY TRADES — Bitcoin is holding the $76,000 to $75,500 zone, and while it does, Gareth reads the chop as bull flag digestion. His stock levels: Lumentum's pivot low near $820, Nvidia's gap fill just under $210 with major daily support at $200, and Apple's gap fill near $338 which he wants as a short.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Two stories are fighting for the same market. Oil and yields say the Fed has to keep going; the AI slowdown says growth is about to cool. Both argue for lower stocks, and yet the S&P is still above its line. Watch 5.02% on the 10-Year and 7,570 on the S&P — those two numbers settle it before any narrative does.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 AI Leaders Call for a Slowdown
03:05 Oil at $104 and the Resistance Line
04:25 87% Odds — But Warsh Is the Event
05:30 S&P: Still Bullish Above 7,570
06:20 Is the AI Slowdown Even Real?
08:10 The Dollar Catches an AI Bid
09:15 10-Year at 4.987% — Watch 5.02%
11:00 Gold's Head and Shoulders Triggers
12:05 Silver's $55.50 Target
15:00 Bitcoin's Bull Flag, Explained
16:45 LITE, NVDA and the Apple Short
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📺 More today: Bitcoin Revealed at 1:30pm and Trading The Close at 4:20pm.
💬 COMMENT: Is the AI slowdown real, or a talking point?
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⚠️ Educational and informational only — not financial advice. Gareth Soloway and Verified Investing are not registered investment advisors. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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