Renting vs Buying a Home in 2026: The Real Math for 30 US Cities

Anna rents. Mark bought the same house. Who is richer after 5, 10 and 20 years? We took real prices and rents for the 30 largest US metros (Zillow, Sept 2026), last week's 30-year mortgage rate (Freddie Mac, 7.40%), and the property tax and home insurance of every state, and ran the same model for all of them. Then we left the perfect world: new build vs move-in ready, what to do with spare money, what if you're not sure you'll stay, and whether buying to rent out still works. Finally: did homes really get expensive, or did wages go up too? Chapters 0:00 Anna and Mark 1:08 Part 1 · The perfect world 2:18 What Mark really pays the bank 3:08 Turn Anna's dial: cash, savings, stocks 3:50 Turn the rate 4:13 Houses vs condos: two opposite answers 5:19 30 cities on the map 6:39 Part 2 · The real world 6:55 New build or move-in ready 7:55 Spare money: pay off, invest, save or hold 9:29 Not sure you'll stay 10:14 Buying to rent out 11:10 Part 3 · Did homes really get expensive? 12:33 So, rent or buy? 13:15 What's not in the model Sources Zillow Home Value Index and Observed Rent Index (metro, Sept 2026) · Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED (MORTGAGE30US) · Tax Foundation, effective property tax by state (2024) · State homeowners insurance averages (2026) · HUD Fair Market Rents FY2026 (cross-check) · NAR 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers · Gallup, Economy and Personal Finance survey (2025) · S&P Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index · US Census, median household income · BLS CPI · IRS filing statistics · Federal Reserve SHED 2025. Model assumptions: 20% down, 3% buying costs, 6% selling costs, 1% of value per year for maintenance, state property tax and insurance, renter invests the down payment and any monthly difference at 7%, home prices grow at each metro's 25-year average, rents at the 10-year average. No mortgage interest deduction (85%+ take the standard deduction), no PMI, no HOA except in the condo scenario ($400/mo). This is an educational comparison, not financial advice. The 30 cities (Zillow, Sept 2026; renter invests at 7%; years = first year buying is ahead, 30+ = not within 30 years) City · house price / house rent / years · condo price / apartment rent / years New York, NY · $755k / $3464 / 30+ · $581k / $3516 / 12 Los Angeles, CA · $1012k / $4420 / 11 · $662k / $2690 / 30+ Chicago, IL · $375k / $2536 / 13 · $279k / $2063 / 19 Dallas, TX · $361k / $2345 / 14 · $210k / $1501 / 30+ Houston, TX · $307k / $2220 / 11 · $141k / $1410 / 13 Washington, DC · $615k / $3211 / 19 · $348k / $2260 / 11 Philadelphia, PA · $396k / $2292 / 7 · $284k / $1810 / 11 Miami, FL · $569k / $3433 / 6 · $269k / $2440 / 4 Atlanta, GA · $383k / $2275 / 9 · $266k / $1658 / 18 Boston, MA · $765k / $3500 / 30+ · $577k / $2948 / 30+ Phoenix, AZ · $451k / $2302 / 9 · $272k / $1512 / 15 San Francisco, CA · $1212k / $4222 / 30+ · $709k / $3173 / 30+ Riverside, CA · $591k / $3147 / 5 · $472k / $2311 / 13 Detroit, MI · $264k / $1673 / 10 · $269k / $1395 / 30+ Seattle, WA · $753k / $3435 / 22 · $433k / $2081 / 30+ Minneapolis, MN · $400k / $2443 / 14 · $215k / $1630 / 17 San Diego, CA · $1001k / $4121 / 17 · $617k / $2714 / 21 Tampa, FL · $373k / $2390 / 7 · $194k / $1774 / 5 Denver, CO · $581k / $2930 / 30+ · $299k / $1755 / 30+ Baltimore, MD · $409k / $2504 / 7 · $279k / $1787 / 21 St. Louis, MO · $279k / $1689 / 10 · $198k / $1329 / 21 Orlando, FL · $400k / $2434 / 11 · $184k / $1764 / 5 Charlotte, NC · $385k / $2189 / 11 · $294k / $1563 / 30+ San Antonio, TX · $275k / $1820 / 30+ · $182k / $1244 / 30+ Portland, OR · $553k / $2694 / 15 · $295k / $1676 / 30+ Sacramento, CA · $582k / $2809 / 15 · $333k / $1976 / 11 Pittsburgh, PA · $226k / $1659 / 4 · $272k / $1380 / 30+ Cincinnati, OH · $317k / $2046 / 8 · $217k / $1376 / 23 Austin, TX · $421k / $2285 / 30+ · $339k / $1446 / 30+ Las Vegas, NV · $443k / $2246 / 10 · $228k / $1497 / 10