Kalshi's Andy Ross on hedging the event itself rather than a basket of proxies

Everyone said the Brexit hedge was to short the stock market. Markets went up, the hedge came apart from the event, and that gap is exactly what prediction markets close. Andy Ross, Head of Institutional at Kalshi, joins Ash to break down how institutions can price the actual question, why a clearinghouse keeps a hedge intact when markets break, and what finally brings institutions into perpetuals. Chapters 00:00 | Why proxy hedges fall apart 01:40 | From TradFi to Kalshi 03:40 | Institutional priorities and barriers 05:08 | One view, every instrument 09:00 | Brier scores and calibration 14:34 | The wisdom of experts 20:00 | What Kalshi will list 24:00 | Insider trading and surveillance 36:00 | Liquidity and idiosyncratic markets 43:00 | Perpetuals and the clearinghouse About the guest: Andy Ross is Head of Institutional at Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market and perpetuals exchange with its own clearinghouse and exchange. He is a 30-plus-year veteran of traditional finance. His roles include European Head of OTC Clearing and Managing Director at Morgan Stanley, CEO of CurveGlobal, a capital markets role at London Stock Exchange Group, and Global Head of Prime Brokerage and UK Head of Financial Markets at Standard Chartered. He studied Ecology and Economics at the University of Edinburgh. Resources mentioned: Kalshi research analyzing 2.2 million markets on calibration Independent research from the Fed and Morgan Stanley on prediction market accuracy Brier score, a measure of forecast calibration Recorded at TOKEN2049 in Singapore Subscribe to Derivatives Decoded for more conversations on institutional digital asset derivatives. Connect with Andy Ross:   / andy-ross-51184917   Kalshi on LinkedIn:   / kalshi   Kalshi website: https://kalshi.com/ Brought to you by: Kemet: https://www.kemettrading.com/