This El Niño Could Break a 75-Year Record - Here's What That Means

NOAA says there's a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter, and a 75% chance it becomes the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950. In this video, we break down what's happening in the Pacific, how this event compares to the super El Niños of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, and what it could mean for winter weather across the United States. In this video: What NOAA's September 2026 update actually says Why NOAA now measures El Niño with RONI, and why +2.5°C is the record line How El Niño builds itself through the Bjerknes feedback loop What the very strong El Niño of 1997-98 did to California Why the "Godzilla" El Niño of 2015-16 didn't deliver the rain many expected How the subtropical jet stream shifts storms toward the southern U.S. What to watch in NOAA's next monthly updates El Niño shifts the odds — it doesn't guarantee the weather where you live. Forecasts will change as winter gets closer, and we'll cover every update. 🔔 Subscribe to Storm Signal for the latest on El Niño, winter storms, hurricanes and severe weather.