Why Public Schools Are Running Out of Students (and Money)

Americans are having fewer babies — and that's showing up in school budgets. By 2031, there will be 2.7 million fewer children in America's public schools. But the buildings, the staff, and the costs built for a larger student population are still here. In this video, Bellwether's Esta Sherr talks with policy analysts Carrie Hahnel, Paul Beach, and John Bellaire about why enrollment is falling, why the decline is hitting some communities harder than others, and what district and state leaders can do about it — before the hardest decisions get made for them. 📊 Read Bellwether's research: How Student Enrollment Declines Are Affecting Education Budgets, Explained in 10 Figures → https://bellwether.org/publications/d... The Hidden Geography of School Enrollment Decline: Exurban Districts Are Booming While Others Shrink → https://bellwether.org/blog/hidden-ge... ⏱️ CHAPTERS 0:00 Americans are having fewer babies 1:18 How public schools actually get funded 1:47 Every state's birth rate is falling 2:01 From fewer babies to smaller kindergarten classes 2:55 Two-thirds of districts are shrinking 3:18 The other drivers: migration and school choice 4:06 The ESSER funding cliff 4:44 Increasing staff while enrollment declines 5:24 The fixed cost problem 6:22 Where enrollment is falling — and where it's growing 7:29 Why exurban districts are booming 8:16 More students with the greatest needs 8:45 What district leaders can do 9:36 What state leaders can do 10:18 What parents and communities can do 10:33 How fewer schools can be better schools 11:27 What comes next 11:58 Credits and about Bellwether 🎓 ABOUT BELLWETHER Bellwether is a national nonprofit working at the intersection of policy, research, and practice. We believe American education needs dramatic change. We deliver timely analysis for leaders and policymakers, anchored in real-world insights from our work on the ground with partners. Our team includes former teachers and educators, school and district leaders, policymakers, government officials, and founders. Learn more at https://bellwether.org 👍 Like this video if you learned something new, and subscribe for more on the issues shaping the education sector. FEATURING Esta Sherr — Host, Writer, Producer; Digital Communications and Marketing Manager, Bellwether Carrie Hahnel — Report Author; Partner, Bellwether Paul Beach — Report Author; Senior Associate Partner, Bellwether John Bellaire — Report Author; Analyst, Bellwether CONTRIBUTORS Krista Kaput — Report Author; Associate Partner, Bellwether Biko McMillan — Report Author; Senior Analyst, Bellwether McKenzie Maxson — Director of Communications and Marketing, Bellwether Andy Jacob — Partner and External Relations Team Lead, Bellwether Amber Walker — Editorial Director, Bellwether Julie Nguyen — Design and Visual Manager, Bellwether MUSIC Paul Werner, "Serenity," iStock Joseph Rusnak, "Shifting Strategies," iStock Akio Jefferson, "Signal Truth," iStock Pleasant Pictures, "Air Waves," iStock Sch3nk, "Reaching New Heights," iStock Tambhor, "Spreading Light," iStock VISUALS iStock, Flickr, Canva, Flourish NEWS CLIPS PBS NewsHour, April 10, 2026 ABC News, April 10, 2026 F ox News, April 10, 2026 CNN, April 18, 2026 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons (http://www.creativecommons.org/) Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. #Education #EducationPolicy #PublicSchools #SchoolFunding #DecliningEnrollment #K12