318R The Impact of Energy Transitions on Land Use Change

Organizer(s): Pamela Jagger; Rob Bailis Energy transitions are occurring throughout low and middle-income countries with varying degrees of speed and success. Some countries have made major progress with most of the population transitioning from biomass fuels to modern clean fuels, potentially relieving the pressure that demand for energy services places on forest and woodland ecosystems. In other contexts, energy transitions are slower and more nuanced, for example, population-level transitions from fuelwood to charcoal, which has different implications for land use change. Still others are stagnant, remaining heavily reliant on biomass fuels in the face of rapidly growing and urbanizing populations and missing or stagnant markets for clean fuels and technologies. The impact of energy transitions on patterns of land use change are poorly understood. While there is some evidence of localized effects on land use land cover change (LULCC) in conditions where biomass reliance is high and persistent, the effect of successful or partial energy transitions on LULCC is poorly understood. We hope to gain insights as to whether major energy transitions relieve pressure on deforestation and forest degradation and on the impact of partial energy transitions such as population-level shifts from fuelwood to charcoal as is occurring in several low-income countries. This session will feature analyses that combine sociodemographic data on energy transitions and high-quality spatial data on LULCC over time. The aim of the session is to provide insights into the coupled nature of energy transitions and the health of forest and woodland ecosystems. Confirming the hypothesis that energy transitions support healthy landscapes can provide additional support for investment in energy services, and understanding the role of more nuanced and slower paced energy transitions is important to informing policies surrounding land use and conservation.