I Asked 4 AIs the Odds of an AI Crash by 2028

On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq closed at 5,048. Two and a half years later it was down 78%. Ten weeks before that peak, Howard Marks sent his clients a memo called bubble⁠.com. This year Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft plan about $725 billion of capital spending, driven largely by AI. So is it the same story again? I went through Marks's memos, the numbers from 2000 and this year's filings, and gave four AI models the same question. What lines up with 2000: a world-changing technology, building far ahead of today's revenue, suppliers financing their own customers, debt rising fast, and valuations close to 1999 (Shiller CAPE 40.9 vs 44.2). The big difference: today's leaders run large, profitable businesses. But Cisco had profits too, and its stock still fell 89%. The four AIs (one run each, max effort, no internet; guesses, not forecasts): · Claude Opus 5.5: YES, a bubble · 25% chance of a 40%+ Nasdaq-100 drop by 2028 · GPT-6 Astra: PARTLY · 40% · Gemini 4 Argon: PARTLY · 35% · Grok 4.7: PARTLY · 35% Chapters: 0:00 Is this 2000 again? 0:41 Howard Marks's two bold statements 1:25 Who is Howard Marks? 1:59 How he spots a bubble 3:00 Two kinds of bubble 3:39 Britain's railway mania 4:10 The dot-com crash 4:39 Cisco, Amazon, Pets.com 5:17 The fiber that stayed 5:57 Lending to your own customers 6:21 2026: $725 billion of spending 7:05 Spending more cash than they make 7:30 Is the revenue real? 8:05 Money moving in circles 8:58 The debt 9:36 Prices: close to 1999 10:30 What's different this time 12:04 Marks's view today 13:05 Who gets paid? 14:00 I asked 4 AIs 14:20 Odds of a crash by 2028 15:30 Marks's warnings and advice 16:28 So, is it a bubble? Key sources (the full list and the exact prompt are in the pinned comment): · Howard Marks, bubble⁠.com (Jan 2000): https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/d... · Howard Marks, Is It a Bubble? (Dec 2025): https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insigh... · Howard Marks, AI Hurtles Ahead (Feb 2026): https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insigh... · Odlyzko, Britain's Railway Mania: https://www-users.cse.umn.edu/~odlyzk... · Big Tech 2026 capex (Alphabet Q2 release): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da... · Anthropic IPO filing (S-1): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da... · Bain, $6 trillion by 2031: https://www.bain.com/about/media-cent... · IMF on circular AI deals: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles... · Bank of England, AI-related debt: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/finan... · Shiller CAPE: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Real clips (short excerpts for commentary): Oaktree Capital (Howard Marks, 2024–2025), Federal Reserve (Jerome Powell, Oct 29, 2025), Citadel Securities (Ken Griffin, Oct 2026), World Economic Forum (Jensen Huang, Jan 2026), Alphabet Investor Relations (Q2 2026 call). Photos (Wikimedia Commons): Pets.com sock puppet by Atomic Taco (CC BY-SA 2.0); Global Crossing manhole cover by Steven Damron (CC BY 2.0); Cisco campus by Mike Linksvayer (CC0); Alan Greenspan (Federal Reserve, public domain); Opening of the Liverpool and Manchester Railway, A.B. Clayton, 1830 (public domain). Historical comparisons and one small model experiment, not investment advice. Every number was checked against its source on October 28, 2026. More from Novaki:    / @novaki_ai   Subscribe:    / @novaki_ai   The narration uses an AI voice. Website: https://novaki.lol X: https://x.com/Novaki_ai Instagram:   / novaki_ai   Contact: hello@novaki.lol #AIBubble #HowardMarks #DotCom