Trump's WORST Poll Ever? Final Midterm Forecast: Dems 237-198 House, 52-48 Senate

#midterms2026 #Trump #Democrats #Republicans This is the FINAL midterm forecast, not the final result. According to Harry Enten's final forecast and his aggregate of models, Democrats have a 92% chance to retake the US House, with a projected 237 seats to 198 for Republicans, and a 71% chance to win the US Senate, with a projected 52 seats to 48. Why? President Trump's net approval is -24, described in the forecast as the worst for any president before a midterm since Harry S. Truman in 1946. Congress approval is just 14%, and on inflation Trump is -52 underwater. Democrats lead the generic House ballot by +9, while the forecast says they only need +4 to overcome Republican redistricting. 224 House seats are at least leaning Democratic, and Democrats also have the primary turnout edge. The Senate story is historic. Democrats would need to flip at least two states Trump won by 10+ points, something that has not happened since 2011. But in Alaska, Ohio and Texas, Democrats are polling +3, and in Iowa just +1. Trump is underwater by double digits in all of them, and Republican nominees like Ken Paxton (-29), Roger Marshall (-17) and Susan Collins (-12) are also deeply underwater. But there is a warning: in 2020 the forecast was 242 Democratic House seats, and Democrats won 222. And from 2018 to 2024, Republicans beat their final Senate poll average by 4.1 points in Trump-won states. If polls miss Republicans by 4 points again, Republicans could still hold the Senate. Bonus: the chance of a Democratic majority of governors has jumped from 27% on March 30 to 83%, while Democrats themselves give their congressional leaders a -12 net approval. Do you think Democrats will win BOTH the House and Senate? Tell us in the comments. Subscribe for daily world news updates.