Democrats Just Turned Against An AI Bailout | Ed Dowd

Ed Dowd says Nvidia will probably miss its numbers in the next six to 12 months, and that the chip stocks that look cheapest today are the trap, because their earnings sit at a cyclical peak. The former BlackRock portfolio manager and founder of Phinance Technologies explains why he thinks the AI bubble is close to its end, why the neoclouds buying Nvidia's chips are losing access to credit, and why he does not expect the Fed or Washington to bail out Big Tech. ⚠️ 𝗜𝗠𝗣𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗔𝗡𝗧 𝗡𝗢𝗧𝗜𝗖𝗘 - 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗙𝗢𝗥 𝗨𝗞 𝗥𝗘𝗦𝗜𝗗𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 This content is directed only at persons outside the United Kingdom. It is not directed at, and must not be acted upon by, persons in the United Kingdom. ___________________________________________ 📰 𝗘𝗗 𝗗𝗢𝗪𝗗 𝗢𝗡 𝗫: https://x.com/DowdEdward 📝 𝗘𝗗'𝗦 𝗦𝗨𝗕𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗖𝗞 (𝗕𝗲𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲): https://eddowdbeyondthenarrative.subs... 🏦 𝗣𝗛𝗜𝗡𝗔𝗡𝗖𝗘 𝗧𝗘𝗖𝗛𝗡𝗢𝗟𝗢𝗚𝗜𝗘𝗦 (𝗘𝗱'𝘀 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺): https://phinancetechnologies.com ___________________________________________ 🔔 Subscribe to Risk Takers:    / @officialrisktakers   🎬 𝗪𝗔𝗧𝗖𝗛 𝗡𝗘𝗫𝗧 Ed Dowd on the AI numbers:    • Ed Dowd | They’re Faking The AI Numbers   Ed Zitron and Jack Gamble on the AI revenue numbers:    • Don't Trust The AI Revenue Numbers | Ed Zi...   George Noble on Anthropic's leaked IPO papers:    • Anthropic's Leaked IPO Papers Show A $518 ...   Every macro episode:    • Macro   𝗜𝗡 𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗦 𝗜𝗡𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗩𝗜𝗘𝗪 Recorded on Friday 30th Oct, the day the semiconductor index fell 7% and Intel dropped nearly 30%, Ed Dowd sets out why he reads it as a fundamental sell-off, not a macro scare. He argues chips are a commodity business, that Nvidia and Micron margins are far above their long-run norm, and that a semiconductor stock on a low P/E at the top of the cycle is cheap only because its earnings are about to fall. He explains the chip index's July low as the line he is watching before calling the end of the AI bubble. Alessandro and Ed then follow the money behind the AI boom: Big Tech free cash flow turning negative as capex rises, neoclouds borrowing in the junk bond market, circular deals between chip makers and their customers, and why Ed compares Nvidia's buyers to the dot-com telecoms (WorldCom, Qwest, Winstar) that bought from Cisco, Nortel and Lucent. They cover private credit and the risk to annuities, what Anthropic's IPO filing (S-1) shows and whether retail buyers should touch it, US interest rates and the 10-year Treasury yield, China, the K-shaped economy and jobs revisions, the Binance hack and crypto, the gold price, why Ed holds mostly cash, and what the US midterm elections could mean for markets. Views and forecasts are Ed Dowd's own and are not financial advice. #EdDowd #Nvidia #AIBubble #StockMarket #Semiconductors #finance #investing #AI CHAPTERS 0:00 Coming up 1:14 Welcome: Ed Dowd of Phinance Technologies 1:32 Is The AI Stock Boom Ending 7:20 How Much Americans Hold In Stocks 8:52 Are Chip Stocks Like Nvidia Really Cheap 15:43 A word from Kalshi 17:00 Where US Interest Rates Go Next 21:57 Why China's Slump Matters For America 25:18 Will Washington Bail Out AI 27:58 The Hidden Risk In Private Credit 32:52 Nvidia's Buyers And The Dot Com Bust 35:07 What Anthropic's IPO Filing Shows 38:37 Should Anyone Buy The Anthropic IPO 41:59 The Binance Hack And Crypto 45:25 Where The Gold Price Goes Next 48:06 Why Ed Dowd Holds Mostly Cash 49:12 The US Midterm Elections And Markets 51:53 Where To Find Ed Dowd ___________________________________________ 𝗙𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗨𝗥𝗘𝗗 𝗢𝗡 𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗦 𝗦𝗛𝗢𝗪 ⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇ 🟥 𝗞𝗔𝗟𝗦𝗛𝗜 - 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 $𝟱𝟬 & 𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝗮 $𝟮𝟱 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝘂𝘀!!! ✅ Trade Leveraged Perps in the US. Securely. 👉 Sign up: https://www.kalshi.com/p/alessandro ⚠️ Paid promotion. US customers only. Not FCA regulated, not available in the UK. ___________________________________________ 🆇 𝗔𝗟𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗔𝗡𝗗𝗥𝗢 𝗢𝗡 𝗫 👉 Follow: https://x.com/alessandrorisk 📸 𝗔𝗟𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗔𝗡𝗗𝗥𝗢 𝗢𝗡 𝗜𝗡𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗚𝗥𝗔𝗠 👉 Follow: https://bit.ly/alessandro-insta ___________________________________________ 👁️‍🗨️ 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗱𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁: https://www.cryptobanter.com/our-ethics/ We take our code of ethics very seriously and have engaged @zachxbt to monitor our progress. If you feel we're not living up to it and have hard evidence please mail ZachXBT directly at reportcb@protonmail.com ⚠️ 𝗕𝗘𝗪𝗔𝗥𝗘 𝗢𝗙 𝗦𝗖𝗔𝗠𝗠𝗘𝗥𝗦 𝗜𝗡 𝗢𝗨𝗥 𝗖𝗢𝗠𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗖𝗢𝗠𝗠𝗨𝗡𝗜𝗧𝗬 𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗡𝗡𝗘𝗟𝗦 📝 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗿: Risk Takers is a social podcast for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, and callers should not be construed as financial advice. Views expressed by guests and hosts do not reflect the views of the station. Listeners are encouraged to do their own research. 𝗚𝗘𝗡𝗘𝗥𝗔𝗟 𝗥𝗜𝗦𝗞 𝗡𝗢𝗧𝗜𝗖𝗘 Crypto assets are volatile and high-risk. You could lose all your money. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any crypto asset. You should conduct your own research and consult with a financial adviser before making any investment decisions.