The Grande El Niño: What It Could Mean for Utah Snow

Craig Gordon sits down at DPS headquarters with Brian McInerney, a hydrologist with 30 years of experience. His career runs from lift operator and ski patroller to the National Weather Service. The topic is the Grande El Niño. Brian says the equatorial Pacific is the warmest it has been in recorded history, and what that means for Utah is still an open question. Chapters 0:00 Intro 0:44 The Grande El Niño 1:41 Last year's high pressure 2:03 How the jet stream works 4:27 What an unprecedented El Niño could bring 5:08 Eight big El Niños, a 50/50 split 7:48 Atmospheric rivers explained 9:04 Atmospheric river vs. El Niño 12:15 Winter starts later and ends earlier 13:21 Early, mid, and late winter outlook 15:52 Snowpack and avalanche conditions 17:37 The wishlist: building the snowpack right side up 19:52 Why past records are a poor guide 20:40 How good is a weather forecast? 22:37 Southern Utah, the Pacific Northwest, and us in the middle 25:26 The weather briefings that kept skiers safe 28:20 Weather resources worth bookmarking In this conversation: Why the jet stream is the steering wheel for storms How a warmer atmosphere changed the way El Niño behaves What last winter's long stretch of high pressure did to the snowpack The difference between an atmospheric river (a weather event) and El Niño (climate variability) Why the moderate-to-extreme El Niño winters since 1950 split four above average and four below in the Cottonwoods What Brian expects from early, mid, and late winter How early-season rain and faceted layers can shape avalanche conditions Why forecasting from past records is a weak bet right now Where Brian sends people for weather info: weather.gov, the Salt Lake City forecast discussion, and the Utah Avalanche Center. DPS. Design. Performance. Soul.