CAN DIPLOMACY STOP A FROZEN WAR? | HORMUZ, BAB AL-MANDAB— AND THE OIL WAR

Former Pakistani diplomat Jauhar Saleem has said a dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz was the key factor that derailed the June Islamabad memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, turning the conflict from a nuclear standoff into a wider struggle over the region’s vital oil routes. Ambassador Saleem said Iran had sought to preserve its control of the waterway after securing favourable terms in the MOU, while the United States and regional states could not accept Tehran effectively establishing the strait as a sphere of influence. He said the resulting attacks on shipping and US retaliation triggered a fresh escalation, while the nuclear issue has since largely disappeared from negotiations. The conflict has now widened to the Bab al-Mandab, the alternative route for oil exports, with attacks affecting Saudi shipping and the East-West pipeline. Oil prices, which had remained in the $80s, have subsequently climbed to about $107 a barrel, he said. Ambassador Saleem said neither military pressure nor economic strangulation had fundamentally altered the bargaining position of Washington or Tehran, making diplomacy the only realistic way out of the crisis. Pakistan, he said, was unusually well placed to mediate because of its relationships with the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, as well as China, which he described as perhaps having the greatest leverage over Tehran. He said Islamabad should focus first on preventing the conflict from becoming a wider regional war, while seeking a face-saving formula under which Washington eases its blockade of Hormuz and Iran stops disrupting shipping. A parallel diplomatic track would be needed with the Houthis to halt attacks on Saudi Arabia and Saudi shipping, he said. Saleem warned that the conflict could otherwise settle into a “frozen conflict”, with hardliners in Iran believing they have gained control of the strategic waterway while Washington has failed to force Tehran into capitulation.