Critical Capital - The US-China rivalry runs through energy and minerals, ft. Graham Allison

On today’s stage, China is the rising global power, and U.S. dominance is under threat. Geopolitical tensions like wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, combined with supply chain disruptions and a growing demand for rare earth minerals, continue to strain the relationship. But that relationship is key to the future of energy in the United States. In this episode, Alfred Johnson talks with Harvard professor and geopolitical strategist Graham Allison. Together, they unpack the growing rivalry between the United States and China through the lens of the “Thucydides Trap,” a concept Graham popularized in his book “Destined for War.” The “Thucydides Trap” is the idea that when a rising power threatens an established one, conflict often follows. Drawing on history and decades of foreign policy experience, Graham explains how today’s U.S.-China relationship resembles past global power struggles. He also explains how economic interdependence complicates the rivalry, and why energy, rare earth minerals, Taiwan, and global supply chains have become central geopolitical battlegrounds. 01:43 Show Setup and Intro to Graham Allison 03:12 What Is Thucydides Trap 06:21 U.S.-China Summit Takeaways 08:02 History Shapes Rivalry 12:19 Tariffs and Rare Earths 16:00 Taiwan Flashpoint 20:24 Iran and Hormuz Shock 22:45 Energy Lessons and Ukraine 27:29 Future Scenarios Ahead 34:38 Closing and Credits