印度造芯片比台积电还早三年，为什么干等 37 年却一片都没出来？印度五分之一的芯片设计工程师，印度半导体到底卡在哪？东亚半导体八部曲之番外篇｜艾森 Essen

印度造芯片，比台积电还早三年。可到现在，它连第一片晶圆都还没等到。 今年 9 月 18 日，新德里，印度一年一度的半导体大展。台下坐满了人，台上是电子与信息技术部长瓦伊什纳夫。主持人问他，印度第一座大规模的商业晶圆厂，什么时候能出第一片晶圆。他没有直接回答时间，而是讲了一个小细节：他在自己办公室的墙上留了一颗钉子，一直空着，就等那片晶圆出来挂上去。当时预计的时间，是 2028 年。 往前一年，大洋的另一边也有个人在等。2025 年 10 月底，微软的 CEO 纳德拉在一档科技播客上说了一段大公司老板很少公开讲的话：我们现在最大的问题，不是算力过剩，是电。你可能会有一批芯片躺在仓库里，插不上电。一个国家的部长，墙上等着一片晶圆；一家世界级公司的老板，仓库里堆着插不上电的芯片。这两个人，都跟印度有关。 很多人以为，印度缺的是钱、是设备、是聪明人。可是 1989 年那场火烧起来之前，印度的芯片技术，按后来的回顾，只比世界前沿落后两年左右。火是从园区一个很偏的角落、一间叫休息室的房间烧起来的。副议长当场插话问：这么敏感的地方，有烟雾探测器，难道没有自动喷淋吗？部长回答：我想，这里没有自动喷淋。之后他给了一个承诺——只要设备能较快到位，这座厂 15 到 18 个月就能恢复。这个承诺，最后变成了 8 年多。 那场火，到底烧掉了什么，让一个已经跑起来的工厂，停下来八年？ 同样是请外国公司进来，为什么槟城、新加坡、台湾走出了三种结局，而印度今天走的，更像槟城那一条？ 全世界五分之一的芯片设计工程师在印度，美国最大的几家科技公司里有两家是印度裔在掌舵——可这些大脑设计出来的芯片，为什么还要送到台湾去造？ 今天，咱们从一颗钉子和一场火讲起，看看这面墙，印度到底为什么等了三十七年。 #印度半导体 #莫迪 #纳德拉 #美光 #芯片战争 India was making chips three years before TSMC existed. It still hasn't produced its first wafer from a large commercial fab. On September 18 in New Delhi, at India's annual semiconductor expo, a full hall listened to the electronics and IT minister, Ashwini Vaishnaw. When the moderator asked him when the country's first large commercial fab would produce its first wafer, he didn't give a date. He gave a detail instead: he keeps a nail in his office wall, empty, waiting for that wafer. The date everyone was working toward was 2028. A year earlier, someone on the other side of the ocean was waiting too. In late October 2025, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said something on a tech podcast that CEOs rarely say in public: our biggest problem is not too much compute, it's power. You can have a batch of chips sitting in a warehouse with nothing to plug them into. A minister with a nail on the wall; the head of a world-class company with chips he can't plug in. Both of them have something to do with India. Most people assume India is short of money, equipment, or talent. But before the fire of 1989, by later accounts, its chip technology was only about two years behind the global frontier. The fire started in a small room called the rest room, in an outlying corner of the campus. A deputy chairman of the upper house cut in: a sensitive place like this has smoke detectors — surely it has sprinklers? The minister answered: I think there were no sprinklers here. Then he made a promise: given reasonably fast equipment, the plant could be back up in 15 to 18 months. It took more than eight years. So what did that fire actually burn? Why, when several places invited foreign companies in, did Penang, Singapore and Taiwan end up on three different roads — and why does India's road today look more like Penang's? One in five of the world's chip design engineers is in India, and two of America's largest tech companies are run by Indian-born CEOs. So why do the chips those minds design still have to be made in Taiwan? Today we start from one nail and one fire, and ask why this wall has kept India waiting thirty-seven years. #IndiaSemiconductor #Modi #Nadella #Micron #ChipWar 艾森 Essen｜推特 x.com/essen_ai｜油管    / @essenai   Join this channel to get access to perks:    / @essenai