Can You Actually Retire at 60 With $500K? We Tested It

Retire at 60 with $500,000? In an average market, the money runs out at 82. We tested it against every 30-year stretch of U.S. history since 1871. Retire at 60: it works 56 times out of 100. Wait just two years, until 62: it works 98 times out of 100. The reason isn't the size of the pile. It's a 7-year gap most retirement advice skips. WATCH TO SEE Why $500,000 at 60 is a coin flip Why the 4% rule falls short here ($20,000 a year vs about $56,500 actually needed) The 7-year gap between your 401(k), Social Security and Medicare What happens if you retire in the worst year in U.S. history (1966): money gone at 73 Four moves that fix it HOW WE TESTED IT David and Susan are not real. They are a made-up couple, and every number comes from a model we built. Everything is in today's dollars, planning to age 90 $500,000 in a traditional 401(k), 60% stocks / 40% bonds, 0.20% fee Core spending $44,000 a year, plus health insurance and taxes Health insurance before Medicare: about $10,000 a year (our estimate) Social Security: about $45,600 a year combined at 67 U.S. stock and bond returns, 1871-2022; federal tax only, no state tax Your numbers will differ. Use this as a way to think, not as advice. What age are you planning to retire? Tell us in the comments. We read every one. ASSUMPTIONS (the model behind every number) • All figures in today’s dollars • 60/40 stock/bond portfolio, 0.20% fee, traditional 401(k), federal tax • Spending held flat; “success” means the money lasts to age 90 • Market history 1871–2022, every 30-year stretch • Social Security about $45,600 a year for the couple together at 67 • Health insurance of about $10,000 a year until Medicare at 65 SOURCES U.S. stock Market data: Robert Shiller’s S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury data, 1871–2022. Bond returns are estimated from yields, so they’re approximate. Social Security: the 2026 Trustees Report. The main retirement fund (OASI) is depleted in 2032 with 78% of benefits payable. Taxes: 2026 IRS brackets and standard deduction. Medicare Part B for 2026 is $202.90 a month. This is for educational purposes, not financial advice. Talk to a licensed advisor about your own plan. #RetireAt60 #RetirementPlanning #RetireEarly