115 Countries Will Be Shrinking by 2100. Is Yours One?

For most of history, countries only grew. Not anymore. Today 36 countries have fewer people than at their peak, and by 2100 the UN projects that 115 will be shrinking. Watch which countries lose the most people, starting with the collapse of the Soviet Union, through emigration from Eastern Europe, Japan's peak in 2009 and China's peak in 2021, and into a projected future where even India and the whole world stop growing. Is a shrinking population a problem, or an opportunity? Tell us in the comments. CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: 36 countries are already shrinking 0:30 Chapter 1: The Iron Curtain Falls (1985–2000) 2:21 Chapter 2: Eastern Europe Empties Out (2000–2015) 4:12 Chapter 3: Japan and China Begin to Shrink (2015–2025) 5:26 Chapter 4: China's Great Decline, projected (2025–2060) 6:48 Chapter 5: A Shrinking World?, projected (2060–2100) 8:30 Chapter 6: Who is shrinking? (world map) 9:30 Chapter 7: The biggest declines in percent (1990–2100) 10:30 Most people lost, then, now and next KEY NUMBERS Countries with fewer people than at their peak: 10 in 1990, 22 in 2000, 36 today, about 115 by 2100 (projected) People lost from peak so far: Ukraine 14.5M, China 7.1M, Russia 4.6M, Japan 4.4M, Romania 3.9M Projected by 2100: China -793M (from 1.43 billion to 633 million), India -196M after peaking around 2061, Brazil -56M, Japan -51M Biggest decline in percent by 2100 (projected): Ukraine -71%, Bosnia -69%, Lithuania and Moldova -67%, South Korea -58% World population is projected to peak at about 10.3 billion in the 2080s HOW WE MEASURED IT "People lost" is the difference between a country's highest population since 1950 and its population in that year. Figures from 2025 onward are the UN's medium-variant projections, shown with striped bars. They depend on future birth rates and migration and could turn out quite differently. Countries are shown within present-day borders. WHY COUNTRIES SHRINK The main causes are low birth rates (below about 2.1 children per woman), emigration, and in some cases war. Most of the projected decline comes from birth rates that are already very low today. DATA Source: Gapminder population data, based on the UN World Population Prospects 2024. Flag icons: flag-icons (MIT licence). Map data: Natural Earth. Music: original score. #Population #Demographics #DataVisualization