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Wall Street's Hidden Crack.

The Penny Drops

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Wall Street's Hidden Crack.

19 просмотров · 7 дн. назад
The Penny Drops
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19 просмотров · 7 дн. назад
This week, Blackstone's flagship private credit fund said investors asked to pull out about 10% of the fund in one quarter, twice its 5% limit. They got about half. Apollo has capped withdrawals for three quarters in a row, and BlackRock did it in March. Private credit is now a $4.1 trillion market, and banks are lending to it like never before. So what is private credit, why can't people get their money out, and could this be how the next financial crisis starts? In this video, I'll break down: • What private credit is, and why companies now skip the bank • How "semi-liquid" funds promised regular investors a way out (5% a quarter) • The cracks: Tricolor, First Brands and Jamie Dimon's "cockroach" warning • Why rising rates (and AI fears for software companies) make it worse • Why the banks are still behind it, the bull case and the bear case, and what the 2007 BNP Paribas fund freeze teaches us 📚 Sources • Blackstone Q3 2026 results, BCRED repurchase requests ~10% vs 5% cap (Oct 22, 2026): https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/b... • CNBC, "Blackstone restricts flagship fund withdrawals as private asset fears reemerge" (Jun 4, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/04/black... • Reuters, Apollo Debt Solutions: 14.7% sought vs 16.8% prior quarter, ~75% of 2026 requests paid (Sep 22, 2026) • Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, "BlackRock $26 Billion Private Credit Fund Limits Withdrawals" (Mar 6, 2026): https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackr... • Reuters, BlackRock HLEND 9.3% requests, shares -6.7%, 19% of portfolio in software (Mar 6, 2026) • Wealth Management, "Private Credit Confronts the Limitations of the Semiliquid Label" (Cliffwater 14% vs 7% cap; Carlyle CEO quote) (Mar 25, 2026) • CNN, "Why Jamie Dimon is warning of 'cockroaches' in the US economy" (Oct 16, 2025) • Bloomberg, "Private Credit Group Says Market Fears Are Divorced From Reality" ($4.1T AUM, +17%; ~1 in 6 funds with over 5% non-accruals) (Oct 22, 2026): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl... • American Banker, lending to nonbanks ~40% of 2025 bank loan growth (Fed data) (Jan 2, 2026) • FRED, bank loans to nondepository financial institutions: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LN... • FRED, 10-Year Treasury yield (DGS10): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 • Federal Reserve FOMC statement (Sep 16, 2026): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev... • IMF Blog on the Global Financial Stability Report (Oct 13, 2026): https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles... • PitchBook via Yahoo Finance, Goldman Sachs private credit BDC below 5% again in Q3 (Sep 30, 2026): https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/gol... • Reuters via CNBC, BNP Paribas froze three funds on Aug 9, 2007: https://www.cnbc.com/2007/08/23/bnp-p... • AltsWire, BCRED Q3 2026 outflows and NAV per share (Oct 22, 2026) Figures are as reported at the time of this video (October 24, 2026). 💬 Is private credit the next big crack, or a storm in a teacup? Tell me in the comments. 🔔 Subscribe: @pennydrops-r5 | The Penny Drops, animated money stories 🎵 Original music by The Penny Drops ⚠️ For education and entertainment only. Not financial advice. #PrivateCredit #WallStreet #Economy