An introduction to risk prediction and prognostic models

This talk provides a gentle introduction to risk prediction and prognostic models for healthcare research. They are introduced in the context of the PROGRESS framework, with examples given of their role, impact, and statistical basis. Phases of prediction model research are outlined, and current problems and limitations discussed. Signposts are then provided for better practice, including key articles and textbooks, training courses and our new website (www.prognosisresearch.com).