Inflation Pressures Up, Not Down: Lakshman Achuthan on Bloomberg Surveillance

ECRI Co-founder Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Surveillance to challenge the market's two core bets: solid growth and steady disinflation. With our US Future Inflation Gauge near a 47-month high, our forward-looking indicators point to inflation holding up. In this interview, Lakshman discusses: • Why our forward-looking indicators see inflation turning up while the consensus expects disinflation • Growth moderating without collapsing, and why we are watching for stagflation • Why a Fed rate-hike cycle is rarely one and done • How we called the inflation upturn in February, before oil and the war • Negative real earnings, and the survival swiping keeping the consumer afloat • A stable labor market with no hard landing in sight Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 0:19 Inflation to the upside, not down 0:50 A market priced for perfection 1:23 Watching for stagflation 2:29 Why the Fed is rarely one and done 2:47 Oil and the February inflation call 3:55 Nominal GDP and the consumer 5:40 The labor market and no hard landing ECRI, the Economic Cycle Research Institute, is dedicated to the study of economic and inflation cycles. Our team maintains and monitors a unique array of proprietary leading indexes designed to track the interplay of cyclical forces in the U.S. and abroad. This information feeds into the development of our insights around growth and inflation cycles. Learn more at businesscycle.com Subscribe for more cycle-based analysis.