The AI doom post passed 100M views. Power and rates are the real risk. | Ep. 56

An AI doom post from a former Anthropic researcher passed 100 million views this week, and Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor open episode 56 by grading it against what got signed and reported. Oracle grew cloud infrastructure revenue 121%, Amazon tied warrants on Qualcomm stock to as much as $60 billion of chip orders, and Meta's Muse agent ranked fourth on Signal65's Pinnacle benchmark. Daniel reads the Jacob Coxon post as a media event with nothing actioned after the tour. Shay files it under the doomsday narratives the market has cycled through and names the risks he actually watches: power constraints, capital intensity and higher rates for longer. Oracle is the test case. Daniel calls 121% cloud infrastructure growth the pace setter among hyperscalers and still cannot get past the cash Oracle does not have. Shay says nothing in the quarter changed the narrative on ORCL: half of a $664 billion backlog converts inside three years, the GPU fleet runs at 98% utilization, free cash flow is still negative, and only time fixes the stock. That leads into the dislocation both hosts see in DELL at 23x forward earnings, more than NVDA, while memory names like MU trade as a commodity. Daniel's answer is cash conversion. Shay would rather own memory. Qualcomm's segment is Shay's frame: QCOM only has to be at the table, and AWS just gave it a multi-generation seat in custom inference silicon and 1.6 terabit optics. Shay reads the deal as bullish for the whole data movement group, CRDO, ALAB, AVGO and MRVL included. Muse sits fourth on Pinnacle behind three frontier models, and Shay's case for META is a move from monetizing intention to monetizing action. The Q&A covers what a Fed hike next week does to a capex pipeline both hosts call price inelastic, AeroVironment and Kratos after the drone selloff, Daniel's covered call and put spread playbook, Shay's rule of buying when the VIX is above 20 and his 10% cash position, the prisoner's dilemma that keeps every hyperscaler spending, and Apple as the safe haven with the largest install base. The show is live every Friday at 1 PM ET. Bring your tickers and questions to the chat and the guys will take them on air. If this one helped you separate the doom narrative from the receipts, a like puts the show in front of more investors. Subscribe and hit the bell so you catch the next live, and tell us in the comments whether you side with Shay on memory or Daniel on Dell. Chapters: 00:00 Episode 56: a new doomsday scenario in the AI narrative 01:27 Hike odds near 80% and Shay's 5 to 1 bet that the Fed holds 02:09 Leaving IREN without leaving the neo cloud theme 02:46 The Jacob Coxon post: a six week Anthropic hire goes viral 03:47 Anthropic's doom playbook: Dario, Mythos and the misuse report 06:55 Cancel the IPO or slow the buildout: Sacks vs Jensen 07:56 Daniel's Terminator thesis: humanoids plus autonomous weapons 09:36 Best case a slowdown campaign, worst case a psyop 10:08 Shay's list of doomsday narratives and the risks that matter: power, capital, rates 12:07 Nothing got actioned: the media tour and the follower count 12:47 Oracle: 121% cloud infrastructure growth and the cash it does not have 15:31 Shay: no narrative change, half the RPO converts in three years, 98% utilization 18:30 First to blink: why no hyperscaler can cut capex first 20:42 Dell rewarded, memory not: the market's dislocation 22:10 Daniel: Dell is the pick and shovel, Oracle's revenue moves right 23:40 Dell at 23x is more than Nvidia. Why not memory instead 25:50 Qualcomm and Amazon: Daniel on the deal and the abundance era 30:14 Shay: Qualcomm only has to be at the table, plus 1.6T optics 32:22 This will not be the last hyperscaler deal 33:34 Meta's Muse: fourth on the Pinnacle benchmark at a fraction of the cost 35:13 Shay: Meta from monetizing intention to monetizing action, 25x is fair 36:36 Amazon and Meta were the 2026 best ideas: taking the L 37:57 The Apple foldable, an engagement and Grandpa Dan 40:26 Q&A: does a Fed hike slow the AI capex pipeline 43:56 Shay: strong commitments hold, tier three neo clouds get dinged 45:48 Q&A: AeroVironment and Kratos, record backlogs in a broken down group 47:49 Anduril's IPO as the drone trade's SpaceX moment 48:49 Q&A: Daniel's option spreads and covered call playbook 51:50 Shay: buy above VIX 20, 10% cash in each portfolio 53:02 Q&A: the capex prisoner's dilemma and the earnings bubble 56:16 Apple as the safe haven with the biggest install base 57:30 Wrap: Fed week ahead #FuturumEquities #DanielNewman #ShayBoloor #AI #Stocks #Oracle