I Simulated Worlds 2026 10,000 Times… T1 Broke My Model

For three years my model picked Gen.G to win Worlds. For three years, T1 lifted the trophy. So I gave it every pro game of 2026 and played Worlds 2026 ten thousand times. Farsight, episode 1. 0:00 Cold open 1:00 The model 2:19 The three-peat 4:11 Luck? 6:19 The 2026 odds 7:57 Upsets 8:30 The West 9:41 Verdict How the model works: an Elo rating built from the 2,390 games played in the LCK, LPL, LEC, LCS, LCP and CBLOL in 2026, plus a strength rating for each league fitted to 188 international games from Worlds 2025 until today. The tournament is simulated with the real Swiss draw (Bo1, and Bo3 whenever a match can send a team through or out), then Bo5 knockouts. Before using it, I back-tested the same model on Worlds 2023, 2024 and 2025 using only the games played before each event (241 real Worlds games); it was slightly overconfident, so every rating gap is scaled by 0.81. Numbers: before Swiss round 1 (October 23, 2026). The 'Worlds form' scenario (+220 Elo for T1) is a what-if fitted on three tournaments, not a forecast. Sources: Worlds 2026 format, field and draw: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Le... , https://earlygame.com/news/lol/worlds... , https://www.mmorpg.com/other-article/... Game data: Leaguepedia (lol.fandom.com), CC BY-SA T1's titles and finals: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T1_(esp...) , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Le... , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Le... T1's seeds: https://www.gosugamers.net/lol/news/7... , https://www.koreaherald.com/article/1... Faker's 2023 injury break: https://www.oneesports.gg/league-of-l... Gen.G's record: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gen.G_E... , https://earlygame.com/news/lol/gen-g-... HLE MSI 2026: https://www.koreaherald.com/article/1... Western history: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Season_... , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Le... , https://www.strafe.com/news/read/fall... Prediction markets: https://www.strafe.com/esports-bettin... , https://win.gg/prediction-markets/esp... 2023 quarterfinal results: https://www.fragster.com/worlds-2023-... Footage: LoL Esports and LCK broadcasts (Worlds 2023-2025, MSI 2026, LCK 2026 final, Worlds 2026 Play-In) and the official Worlds 2026 anthem 'Know My Name'. Casters muted except for a few short live calls; narration and analysis are mine. Farsight was created under Riot Games' "Legal Jibber Jabber" policy using assets owned by Riot Games. Riot Games does not endorse or sponsor this project. Music: "World Championship 2019 | Orchestral Theme", "A New Dawn", "Summoner's Call", "Eyes on Worlds 2017 Theme" by Riot Games Music, Courtesy of Riot Games (https://www.riotgames.com/en/riot-mus....