04-20-2022 INFORMS RAS Webinar Series. Carl Martland

Title: "Understanding and Controlling Rail Freight Service Reliability: The role of PMAKE Analysis" Speaker: Carl Martland, Senior Research Associate, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, MIT (Retired) Abstract: Advances in IT and the use of scheduling systems have been much more helpful in reducing costs than in improving service. Why? Perhaps the basic structure of typical car scheduling systems is to blame. If a system uses some form of “cut-offs” to determine train connections and thereby develop O-D trip plans, then it assumes that those train connections will actually be realistic and reliable. But they are not, because major terminals operate 24/7, in all kinds of weather, with weekly and seasonal peaks in demand, with uncertainties related to train arrivals and availability of power, and with capacity constraints related to the layout of the terminal. An alternative to using cut-offs is to consider the probability that cars will make connections at terminals as a function of the time available, train arrival reliability, the processing capabilities of the yard and other factors. PMAKE analysis provides a way to relate line, terminal, O-D and system performance within a comprehensive control system that is geared to the various tasks of and resources available to operations managers. PMAKE analysis was incorporated in the MIT Service Planning Model (SPM) that was used by most major North American railroads in the late 1970s and early 1980s. It has been used to create standards for both trip times and reliability, and it was incorporated in models of terminal performances used numerous studies, including studies of terminal capacity and performance on CSX, UP, CN, and BN. Bio: Carl D. Martland has had 50 years of experience in research, consulting and teaching related to rail freight transportation, including 35 years as a Research Associate and Lecturer at MIT. As the leader of the MIT Rail Group for more than 30 years, Mr. Martland participated in numerous studies of railroad operations and economics, including many related to freight service reliability, equipment utilization, hump yard operations, and service design. He served as president of the Transportation Research Forum in 1986 and the president of Rail Area Special Interest Group (RASIG) in 1998. The author of more than 100 professional papers and reports, he was the recipient of the Transportation Research Forum’s Distinguished Transportation Researcher Award in 1997, which recognized his “pioneering contribution to the planning and costing techniques that are now commonly used by many U.S. railroads.”