Every Mega IPO Before a Crash

SpaceX sold its shares to the public in June and Anthropic has just filed to do the same. The last two times the whole world was invited to a share sale this big, in 1720 and 1999, the same three signs showed up before it all went wrong. Here they are, and here's how today measures up. Isaac Newton loses a fortune, a sock puppet gets a second career, and a 300-year-old company proves the company is rarely the bubble. The price is. Chapters 0:00 SpaceX, Anthropic and the biggest share sales ever 1:14 London, 1720: the South Sea Company 3:22 Buy now, pay later, 1720 style 6:11 The crash, Newton and the inquiry 7:32 1999: the internet IPO boom 9:54 Pets.com and the sock puppet 11:04 The dot-com crash 11:57 The pattern: three signs 12:56 Today: SpaceX and Anthropic 13:52 The new door: index funds 14:36 Who can sell first: SpaceX's lock-up staircase 15:25 The lesson IMAGE CREDITS (Wikimedia Commons) William Hogarth, The South Sea Scheme, 1721, NGA 30435: William Hogarth (CC0) John Blunt (Financier): Printed by: John Simon After: D Stevens (CC BY-SA 4.0) Sir Isaac Newton by Sir Godfrey Kneller, Bt: Godfrey Kneller (Public domain) JohnAislabie: Unknown artist of the British school. (Public domain) England, 18th century - View of London Bridge and Tower - 1925.601 - Cleveland Museum of Art: unknown (CC0) A New & Exact MAP of the Coast, Countries and Islands within ye LIMITS of ye SOUTH SEA COMPANY - Herman Moll, 1726 - BL Maps K.Top.124.7 (BLL01018640971): Herman Moll (Public domain) South Sea Company 1720: Julie Ceccaldi (CC0) Het Groote Tafereel der Dwaasheid, titelblad: Anonymous (Public domain) South Sea Bubble Cards-Tree: Unknown author (Public domain) Schuldeiser en armoedzaaier, 1720 Het Groote Tafereel der Dwaasheid (serietitel), RP-T-00-3662B: Rijksmuseum (CC0) Bubble.folly: unknown (Public domain) Anatomie der wind-negotie, of bombario voor den drommel.: Anonyme, graveur (CC0) Allegorie op de neergang van de South Sea Company, RP-P-OB-18.742: Rijksmuseum (CC0) A Scene in Change-Alley, among the Bull, Bears, & Lame Duck (BM 1868,0808.9895): unknown (Public domain) Jonathan's Coffee House or An analysis of change alley with a group of characters from the Life- - -Inscrib'd to Jacob Henriques LCCN2006683091: British Cartoon Prints Collection (Public domain) South Sea Bubble: Edward Matthew Ward (Public domain) Nasdaq MarketSite (51494550508): ajay_suresh (CC BY 2.0) Netscape Navigator 2 Screenshot: Indolering (CC0) AOL promotional CDs in Canada: Jeran Renz (talk) (CC0) CHM Artifacts Boxed Netscape Navigator (2273126105): Marcin Wichary from San Francisco, Calif. (CC BY 2.0) Pets.com Sock Puppet (12935451763): Atomic Taco from Seattle, WA, USA (CC BY-SA 2.0) JCSAT-16 launch (28969742675): SpaceX (CC0) Falcon Heavy Side Boosters landing on LZ1 and LZ2 - 2018 (25254688767): SpaceX (CC0) NEWS AND ARCHIVE CLIPS (short excerpts for commentary) Bloomberg Television, SpaceX begins trading on the Nasdaq (12 Jun 2026) NBC News, Anthropic unveils its IPO filing (26 Oct 2026) CNBC, VA Linux IPO day (9 Dec 1999), as shown in Revolution OS (2001) Journeyman Pictures, New York day traders (1999) Pets.com TV advert (2000) Network Ten News, Wall Street crash (15 Apr 2000) CNBC Television, SpaceX to be added to the Nasdaq-100 (Jul 2026) DATA South Sea prices: Dale, Johnson and Tang (2005), Economic History Review; Britannica Money subscription terms: Dale et al. (2005), Table 1 London wages: LSE Economic History working paper on London building trades IPO first-day returns, money left on the table, share with losses: Jay R. Ritter, IPO Statistics (Oct 2026) 1999 internet IPOs: WilmerHale, Internet IPOs Conclude a Sensational Year in 1999 Nasdaq Composite: FRED (NASDAQCOM) SpaceX prices: Yahoo Finance daily closes Anthropic figures: Anthropic, PBC Form S-1, filed 26 Oct 2026 (SEC EDGAR) Nasdaq-100 fast entry and index buying: CNBC; Yahoo Finance/Proactive (Jul 2026) Disclosure: this channel uses Claude, made by Anthropic, as a production tool. Nothing in this video is financial advice.