Agent Based Model on Actual Supply-chain Network/Hiroyasu INOUE

Agent Based Model on Actual Supply-chain Network Hiroyasu INOUE (Graduate School of Information Science, University of Hyogo) CCSS School on Computational Social Science Agent-Based Models (ABM) in Economics Friday, January 20, 2023 Although supply chain disruption is a threat for our economy and society, it is almost unpredictable. The reason of the unpredictability comes from the complexity of the supply chain: products/services have been highly developed and a lot of firms are involed into them. This study focuses on actual supply chains, or supplier--customer networks of firms and applies an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly one million firms and five million relationships in Japan to examine how production losses caused by disasters and pandemics. We estimate the economic losses of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and employ the same model to predict the loss of the Nankai earthquake, a mega earthquake predicted to hit major industrial cities in Japan in the near future. In addition, we replicate the economic behavior of the 1st wave of the pandemic in 2020.