4th Quarter Investment Outlook - Narrow(er) Straits

Oil back above $100. The Fed's first rate hike in three years. A 10-year Treasury at its highest yield since 2002. And yet the S&P 500 just set a new record. In our fourth-quarter outlook, Brian Seay, CFA, walks through what the third quarter got right and wrong about our thesis, and how we're positioning portfolios heading into year-end. Brian is candid about where our views missed in Q3 (oil, the Fed, and the timing on inflation) and why the bigger picture hasn't changed: a narrow, AI-driven economy, a soft labor market, and core inflation that should cool as the energy shock fades. Along the way: what's really moving through the Strait of Hormuz, why diesel's record refining margin matters more than the price of crude, what's driving the dollar, and why bonds at 5% look more attractive than they have in 25 years. 📊 This episode is chart-heavy. Watch here rather than listen so you can follow along. 🔑 A FEW NUMBERS FROM THIS EPISODE S&P 500 +2.3% in Q3, but the equal-weighted index fell 1.9% S&P 500 forward P/E down from 22.2x in January to 19.1x Fed funds raised to 3.75%–4.00%, the first hike since 2023 10-year Treasury at 5.3% at quarter-end, highest since 2002 Diesel refining margin at a record ~$111/barrel in September Core CPI 2.6% in September; headline 3.7% Municipal bond yields near 4.8%, up from 3.6% in June Capital Stewards is a fee-only fiduciary adviser in Huntsville, Alabama, serving entrepreneurs, engineers, defense contractors, and retirees across North Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. 🌐 Learn more: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com 🔔 Subscribe for quarterly outlooks and market commentary. Capital Stewards, LLC is registered as an investment advisor in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee . Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. #MarketOutlook #Q4Outlook #Investing #Inflation #FederalReserve #OilPrices #BondYields #EmergingMarkets #FinancialPlanning #Huntsville