Houthis take control of Bab al-Mandab Strait

I joined the program live to discuss the Houthi offensive along Yemen's Red Sea coastline and what it means for the wider region. In this interview I argue that the Houthis taking control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait is a major geopolitical shift — one that reshapes the balance around energy transportation, maritime security, and the ongoing Iran–US standoff. But I also raise the question that matters most going forward: the Houthis have gained these islands and coastal towns, yet their record of actually governing captured territory is poor. Seizing ground and holding it are two different problems. I explain why Saudi Arabia is now in a particularly difficult position. The East–West pipeline was Riyadh's way of circumventing the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck, and that outlet is now compromised as well. I expect an air campaign in response, but the past several years have shown that the Houthis are resilient against aerial pressure alone. Washington is offering intelligence and targeting support rather than direct involvement, so I think Riyadh will look to other Gulf states and possibly Pakistan. On diplomacy, I make the case that Iran is not a single unified actor. There is a diplomatic track run by the foreign ministry and President Pezeshkian, and a military track run by IRGC commanders — and the latter carries most of the decision-making weight. That is why I am skeptical that the Gulf ministers' meeting in Oman will produce a workable outcome on its own. Without an internal consensus in Tehran, there is no peace in the Red Sea.