Buy Now at 7.75% or Wait for Rates to Drop? I Ran It

Should you buy a house now at 7.75%, or wait two years for rates to drop? I ran one house four ways, five years out, and gave the buyer who waits and the buyer who acts today the same future rate. The buyer who waited two years for 6.25% ends up paying $90.44 a month MORE than the buyer who bought at 7.75% today and refinanced into the same 6.25%. Same house. And there is an exact price where that flips to waiting, so I show you that one too. In this video: • The house: listed at $450,000, sat all summer, bought for $435,000 with the seller paying 3% ($13,050) toward closing costs. 10% down, $391,500 at 7.75%: $2,804.75 principal and interest, $123.98 mortgage insurance, about $398.75 taxes and $150 insurance, $3,477.48 all in, and $43,500 to close because the credit covered the closing costs • Where 7.75% comes from: the ten-year at about 5.25%, a roughly twenty-year high, plus a markup of about two and a half points • Option one, keep the rate: owning costs $727.48 a month more than renting, $17,460 over two years, $7,148 of it principal you keep, so the honest price of not waiting is $10,312 • Option two, wait two years for 6.25%: $66,000 of rent, the house at list again with nobody paying your costs, $58,500 to close ($15,000 more), $2,493.65 a month, and rent plus interest over five years of $140,599 against the buyer's $148,114 of interest • Option three, buy now and refinance at month 24 into the same 6.25%: the new payment is $2,403.21, $90.44 a month less than the waiter's, the refinance pays for itself in about 15 months, and waiting costs $12,309 over five years • Option four, the seller's 3% buys three points instead: 7% and $200.09 a month less, but $11,745 more at closing and a 59-month payback. Plus the 2-1 buydown, which costs exactly the payment difference ($9,427). A schedule, not a discount • All four on one board at year five, and what the wait is really betting on: the rate barely moves the answer ($663 across 5.5% to 7%), the price decides it, and the line is $439,794. Below that, waiting wins, and I read those rows out loud • The payment you have to carry, why you qualify at 7.75% and not at a buydown rate, and what changes on FHA, VA and USDA ⏱️ CHAPTERS 0:00 The waiter pays more 0:51 The house on the table 2:39 Where 7.75% comes from 3:32 Option one, keep the rate 4:38 Option two, wait two years 6:12 Option three, buy now and refinance 8:08 Quick word 8:59 Option four, the seller's money on the rate 11:05 Five years out, all four 11:56 What the wait is betting on 14:27 The payment you have to carry 15:34 FHA, VA and USDA 16:17 What I would do 17:17 Recap 📅 WORK WITH ME — I'm a licensed mortgage loan officer (NMLS 410420). Send me the price you can negotiate, the rate you were quoted and the rent you pay, and I'll run all four on your house. Book a free call: https://brokerdave.com/book or email ask@brokerdave.com 🧮 FREE CONVENTIONAL PAYMENT CALCULATOR — your price and your rate in, the whole payment with mortgage insurance and your cash to close out: https://brokerdave.com/conventional-p... 📱 SAVE MY CONTACT — https://lurbee.com/c/david-lurvey SOURCES AND ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE FIGURES IN THIS VIDEO • One worked example: a $435,000 purchase, 10% down, a $391,500 30-year fixed at an example rate of 7.75%, mortgage insurance 0.38% a year, taxes about 1.1% of the price, insurance about $1,800 a year. The 6.25% is made up for the example, not a forecast. Rates change daily and depend on your credit, down payment and loan. Not a quote or an offer. • The soft-market terms (3% off list, the seller paying 3% toward closing costs), the $2,750 rent and a point buying about a quarter of a percent are what I see on real files. Yours will differ. • The comparison: both buyers own the same house five years out, so its value cancels. Each path adds up cash at closing, every payment, rent while waiting and what is still owed at year five. Maintenance is left out and rent is held flat, both in the renter's favor. The parked cash earns 4.10% APY in a 24% bracket. The refinance costs $2,500 plus 0.90% of the balance, rolled in. • Temporary buydowns: the borrower is qualified at the note rate, and the funds sit in a custodial account (Fannie Mae Selling Guide B2-1.4-04). • What the seller may pay: conventional 6% of the price at 75.01–90% LTV, 3% above 90% (Fannie Mae B3-4.1-02); FHA 6% (HUD 4000.1 II.A.4.d.iii); VA 4% of reasonable value in concessions, not counting normal points and the buyer's closing costs (VA Pamphlet 26-7 Ch. 8 Topic 5); USDA 6% of the sales price (HB-1-3555 Ch. 6). • The ten-year Treasury yield was 5.257% on September 29, 2026 (CNBC), about a twenty-year high; a 30-year mortgage runs above it by a markup that moves. • This is education, not a recommendation about your money or your house. David Lurvey | NMLS 410420 | Cornerstone First Mortgage NMLS 173855 | Equal Housing Lender | educational, not personalized financial advice