Why Michael Carrick's Manchester United Suddenly Got Worse !!!

Michael Carrick looked like the man who finally fixed Manchester United. A few months later, United are struggling again, with the same manager and the same 4-2-3-1. So was he “found out”? The answer has two halves. One is statistical: last season’s results were far better than the performances behind them. The other is tactical: United now have more of the ball but create worse chances. We go through both, using match data from Carrick’s 24 league games in charge. CHAPTERS 0:00 The man who fixed United 0:44 It worked: third place, 2.29 points a game 1:09 The gap: 1.54 expected vs 2.29 actual 2:15 Why it worked: the counter-attacking team 3:59 The new-manager bounce, and why the data doesn’t fit 5:19 This season: 2.29 down to 1.00 6:10 The lead: wins turning into draws 6:32 Is it the substitutions? 7:15 A different football: more ball, worse shots 9:51 Bruno Fernandes: key passes cut in half 11:36 Carrick’s philosophy and the squad that changed 14:01 City and Arsenal as models 16:26 Was he found out? Not exactly 18:09 The test ahead A CORRECTION In the section on leads (around 6:10) the narration says United led in five of seven games this season, failed to win four, and surrendered four leads. Our verified match-by-match data shows four of seven, with three not won (Everton, Tottenham, Leeds). The on-screen figures are the correct ones, marked with a “data check” tag. I’m sorry for the mismatch. SOURCES AND METHOD Match data: API-Football, Premier League. Carrick’s spell covers 17 games in 2025-26, from 17 January 2026, and 7 games in 2026-27, up to 18 October 2026. Expected points are our own estimate: for each match we turn expected goals for and against into a win/draw/loss probability (a Poisson model) and then into points. They are not an official figure. The pressing and key-pass comparisons are based on the same data. Seven games is a small sample. #ManchesterUnited #MichaelCarrick #Football