Are Your ARDL Results Significant? Testing Long-Run Causality the Right Way

🔒 More advanced videos with Datasets (Excel) + Stata Do-files available as Members-Only - Join P.E.R.S here:    / @cruncheconometrix   P.E.R.S Full List:    • Members-only videos   ARDL and 3-Ways Causality Checks in EViews - Part 2 Long-Run Causality Tutorial for MSc Dissertation | UK, US, Canada Are you writing your MSc Economics, Finance, Banking or PhD dissertation using ARDL and your supervisor asked you to do 3-ways causality checks - long-run, short-run, strong causality - in ARDL framework? This is Part 2 focusing on long-run causality and continuing from Part 1 short-run. 3-ways causality gives you distinction in UK/US/Canada/Australia MSc dissertations because it shows deep understanding of long-run vs short-run dynamics in ARDL. WHAT YOU WILL LEARN: ✓ What is 3-ways causality in ARDL: Long-run causality via Error Correction Term (ECT) t-test, Short-run causality via Wald test on lagged differences, Strong causality via joint Wald test - explained simply ✓ Focus of this video Part 2: Long-run causality in ARDL - how to test long-run causality using t-test on ECT coefficient - if ECT negative and p below 0.05 = long-run causality from independent variables to dependent variable ✓ How to test long-run causality in ARDL in EViews - step-by-step - After estimating ARDL long-run and ECM - View - Cointegration and Long Run Form - Error Correction Form - ECT coefficient and t-stat and p-value ✓ How to interpret ECT coefficient for long-run causality: ECT negative, between -1 and 0, significant p below 0.05 = long-run causality exists - speed of adjustment - e.g., -0.45 means 45% of disequilibrium corrected each period ✓ What if ECT positive or insignificant - no long-run causality - model mis-specified or no long-run relationship ✓ How to report long-run causality results in academic format for UK/US dissertation - table with ECT coefficient, t-stat, p-value, speed of adjustment interpretation - what examiners want ✓ How to use long-run causality for policy implications - long-run policy - example: If financial development causes growth in long-run, financial development policy has long-run growth effect ✓ Common mistakes MSc students make: Positive ECT but claiming long-run causality, ECT not between -1 and 0, not interpreting speed of adjustment, confusing long-run causality with short-run ✓ Difference between long-run causality and short-run causality - long-run is adjustment to equilibrium, short-run is immediate effect ✓ What next - Part 3 strong causality WHO THIS IS FOR: MSc, MBA, PhD Economics, Finance, Banking, Development Economics, Energy Economics students in UK (Warwick, Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham, Glasgow, Edinburgh, LSE), US, Canada, Australia, EU who have found cointegration via ARDL Bounds Test and want to test long-run causality for distinction. OFFICIAL LINKS & COMMUNITY - JOIN 10K+ RESEARCHERS: 🌐 Website: https://cruncheconometrix.com 🛒 Data Shop: https://cruncheconometrix.com/view/da... 🎓 Members-Only:    • Members-only videos   ⭐ Join Membership:    / @cruncheconometrix   👥 Facebook:   / cruncheconometrix   💼 LinkedIn:   / cruncheconometrix   🔔 Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/c/CrunchEcono... WHAT IS COVERED IN THIS VIDEO: Recap ARDL and Bounds Test - cointegration prerequisite What is 3-ways causality - long-run, short-run, strong - simple explanation Focus Part 2 - long-run causality via ECT t-test How to test long-run causality in ARDL in EViews - ECT coefficient Interpreting ECT - negative, between -1 and 0, significant - speed of adjustment What if ECT positive or insignificant - no long-run causality How to report long-run causality table for UK dissertation - ECT, t-stat, p-value, speed Using long-run causality for policy implications - long-run policy Common mistakes and difference long-run vs short-run What next - Part 3 strong causality If this helped, LIKE, COMMENT your ARDL variables and country, SHARE. FAQ: Q: What is long-run causality in ARDL? A: ECT negative and significant p below 0.05 means independent variables cause dependent variable in long-run - speed shows adjustment. Q: My ECT -0.10 - what does it mean? A: 10% of disequilibrium corrected each period - slow adjustment - long-run causality exists but slow. 0:00 Setting the Stage for Causality Analysis 1:20 Analyzing Domestic Credit Growth 2:57 Applying the Wald Test for Robustness 4:24 Switching Dependent Variables 8:55 Synthesizing Unidirectional and Bi-directional Findings #ARDL #Causality #LongRunCausality #ECT #EViews #TimeSeries #MScDissertation #UKUniversities #Econometrics #ErrorCorrectionTerm #ARDLCausality #Cointegration #TimeSeriesAnalysis #EViewsTutorial #DissertationHelp #PhDResearch #ARDLTutorial #3WaysCausality