How many buyers and sellers are just waiting for spring?

Transaction volume in the housing market is currently very low, with both buyers and sellers choosing to sit on the sidelines and wait for better conditions. This week, Mike Simonsen looks at how many market participants are waiting for spring, and why sellers hoping for higher prices may need to re-examine their strategy. Inventory continues to rise unusually late in the year, hitting 1.15 million homes, which is 6.4% more than a year ago. However, new listings are down, with only 69,000 hitting the market this week, as many potential sellers choose to wait. Buyer demand remains exceptionally weak. Pending sales averaged 63,000 per week recently, 15% fewer than last year and the lowest October pace in many years. Despite this, 43.2% of homes have taken a price cut—a high level, but one that is only inching upward rather than accelerating rapidly. The key distinction: The pain of this market shift is regional. Areas with historically tight inventory, like New York and Illinois, are feeling the change more acutely than markets like Austin and Denver that have been slow for years. The takeaway: While mortgage rates have eased slightly, there is little data to suggest a massive surge in demand or prices next spring. Buyers should watch rates closely heading into 2027, and sellers must be realistic about the current pricing environment rather than holding out for a boom. About Mike Simonsen Mike Simonsen is the Chief Economist at Compass International Holdings and founder of Altos Research. He is known for his real-time housing market analysis, tracking inventory, pricing, mortgage rates, and buyer demand weeks before traditional housing reports are released. Subscribe for weekly housing market updates and real-time housing data insights. https://bit.ly/45XbBIx This post is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial, legal, or real estate advice. Any market forecasts or predictions discussed are speculative and are subject to change. Actual results may differ. You should seek your own professional advice before making decisions. Compass disclaims any liability for reliance on this content. #HousingMarket #RealEstate #HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstateMarket #HousingTrends #HomePrices #Inventory #MortgageRates #HousingData #marketupdate #mikesimonsen