(10/8/26) Thursday FULL Forecast - Rachel to Bring Rain, Wind, Beach Impacts to So Cal

(10/8/26) Thursday Afternoon FULL Forecast - Rachel to Bring Weekend Rain, Wind, Surge Threat A dynamic and complicated forecast continues to evolve this afternoon. The latest cone from the National Hurricane Center has Tropical Storm Rachel beginning a turn to the northeast sometime between now and 11 PM tonight. When that turn takes place will be key to how far south or north Rachel makes landfall. The quicker the turn to the northeast, the further south Rachel makes landfall. The longer it takes, the further north. BEACH IMPACTS: Regardless of where Rachel makes landfall, significant beach impacts are expected Sunday and Monday. Coastal erosion, flooding, and high surf (up to 10 FT) are expected. The greatest threat of coastal flooding will come during high tides, which will peak between 6.5–7 FT. Complicating matters, a Kelvin wave is directly over our waters, which is already raising sea levels. Seas are 18" higher than this time last year. Should Rachel take a northerly track, storm surge may be an issue for our south-facing beaches. RAIN: Rain is likely in San Diego and Imperial Counties, along with a flooding threat. Confidence in rainfall totals is very low and will depend entirely on where Rachel tracks. Most of Southern California is at risk level 2/4 for flash flooding Sunday. WIND: Very strong winds are expected Saturday–Monday across the mountains and desert floors. A few gusts up to 70 mph are possible, but most gusts will be in the range of 30–60 mph. Blowing dust in Imperial County is likely, along with poor air quality. At the beaches, gusts of 20–40 mph are possible. AFTER RACHEL: After Rachel moves east Sunday afternoon, a strong area of low pressure will move through Southern California and bring a chance of rain Monday and Tuesday, mainly in San Diego County. Much colder air will move in, with snow showers possible in the highest elevations. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until 8 PM tonight for the coast and valleys. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until 8 PM Friday night for the desert floors and much of Imperial County. #Socalwx #Sandiegowx #Trackingthetropics #Imperialcountywx #Julian #Pinevalley #Alpine #Brawley #Elcentro #Encinitas #Oceanside #Rachel #Heatwave