68. Exponential growth - A.I. 10,000% smarter in 2 years.

Albert Bartlett, a physics professor at the University of Colorado Boulder lamented that the greatest shortcoming of humanity was our inability to understand exponential growth. In this episode we explore conceptualizing exponential growth using microbial growth and common kitchen fermentation of making yogurt or sourdough and from the perspective of the magic doubling step. We then examine Moore's law were transistor cost halved every 18 months over a period of decades, stretching that out to Ray kurtzwild study of computation in general over a century or more.This allowed him to accurately predict the rise of capable artificial general intelligence in the year 2029 remarkably close and an outlier umungst futurists in 1992. Finally we put this information together and reveal the realistic expectation that artificial intelligence could get 10,000 percent smarter over the next two years.