Why Melbourne Real Estate Stalled and Why He Thinks It's About to Break | Jamie Mugavin | EP 17

Melbourne property has barely moved in five years. Jamie Mugavin, a buyer's advocate who valued over 8,000 properties, on why Melbourne real estate stalled and where the Melbourne property market goes next. The Aussie Expat Podcast Linkedin -   / the-aussie-expat   Aussie Expat Homeloans Linkedin -   / aexphl   Find out what you can really borrow - https://shorturl.at/de86F Useful calculators: https://aexphl.com/calculators Melbourne has gone from the second highest median house price in the country to the third cheapest capital city, behind only Hobart and Darwin. Across five years, dwelling growth has been roughly 1%. Jamie spent 10 years as a residential valuer in Melbourne before founding his own buyer's advocacy firm in 2024. In this episode he and Tim work through what actually happened, why he thinks the market is closer to turning than the headlines suggest, and where the opportunities sit right now. Subscribe for weekly insights into the Australian market and let us know in the comments if you want a specific city breakdown next. 💬 About the Aussie Expat Podcast Conversations for Australians living abroad, or thinking about it — covering tax, property, lending, and the practical realities of expat life. 🎧 Listen to the podcast on other platforms: Listen on YouTube:    / @theaussieexpat   Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4zQFgFo... TikTok:   / the.aussie.expat   Instagram:   / the.aussie.expat   📩 Contact us: enquiry@aexphl.com Subscribe for weekly insights into the Australian market and let us know in the comments if you want a specific city breakdown next. What we cover: → Why five years of COVID debt, rate rises, land tax and stamp duty changes have left Melbourne void of confidence → The dam wall analogy, and the confidence levers that could break it: the November state election, rate cuts, policy change and the media → The green shoots he is already seeing on the ground, including 50 people at a first inspection and a home selling $142,000 above the top of the range → Why land area is the number one fundamental most buyers never check → Entry level older style brick apartments between $550k and $750k in high value suburbs, and why owner occupiers are moving back into that segment → The prestige market down 15% to 20%, with one Prahran example falling from $6.775M to $5.25M in 16 months → Why Kew is his most underrated suburb and the surprising one he calls overrated → Population growth, chronic undersupply, and the fundamentals that do not change → What expat and foreign buyers should know about off market purchases and longer timelines Chapters 00:00 Intro 01:16 10 years and 8,000 valuations 03:43 Why he moved to the buy side 05:53 The fundamental most buyers ignore 07:49 1% growth in five years 09:53 Why Melbourne is fragile 11:16 The dam wall about to break 12:05 The confidence levers to watch 12:59 Green shoots on the ground 15:37 Owner occupiers moving back in 17:45 Entry level apartments, $550k to $750k 21:14 Rentvesting after the budget changes 24:03 Is now the time to buy 24:49 Population growth and undersupply 26:05 Buying from Hong Kong as an expat 29:47 The prestige market down 15 to 20% 31:49 Most underrated suburb 33:56 Auction or private sale 34:48 Will Melbourne pass Brisbane again This content is general information only and is not personal financial advice. Please speak to a licensed professional or AEXPHL about your situation. --------- The Melbourne prestige property market is shifting. We analyze a recent, significant price drop at 16 Clark Street, Prahran. When a property sells for $6.775 million in November 2024 after previously changing hands for $5.25 million just months earlier in March, it signals a major adjustment in the high-end sector. This breakdown examines the data behind such a substantial decrease in value, offering insight for anyone tracking luxury real estate trends. Understanding current prestige property market conditions is essential for buyers and sellers navigating this volatile environment. We look at the specific figures and what they mean for the broader Melbourne real estate landscape, helping you identify if these valuation changes are an anomaly or the start of a trend. A clear look at the numbers is the only way to make informed decisions in this space. Watch the full episode at The Aussie Expat Podcast 👆